FEATURED NEWS

Bundle Up for Fall with 4 Vacuum Heat Treat Articles

/ FEATURED NEWS, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT, VACUUM FURNACES TECHNICAL CONTENT

OCGetting excited for the November print edition? In 2021, Heat Treat Today released the inaugural Vacuum Heat Treating print edition. This edition is set to release every November to help heat treaters better work their vacuum furnaces and vacuum heat treat processes. 

This Technical Tuesday original content round-up shares the hottest vacuum heat treating articles from this past year as you bundle up for the cool weather this fall. Enjoy!

Graphite in Vacuum Furnace Fixturing

The Use of Graphite for Vacuum Furnace Fixturing

Let's talk about carbon/carbon composite --- C/C.

Why is the vacuum furnace industry excited about its use in graphite vacuum furnace fixtures, grids, and leveling components? Because it can be readily machined for special shapes and applications. The lighter-weight material is mostly composed of carbon fibers and a carbon matrix (or binder).

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As the authors of this article explain, "They are among the strongest and lightest high temperature engineered materials in the world compared to other materials such as basic graphite, ceramics, metal, or plastic. C/C composites are lightweight, strong, and can withstand temperatures of over 3632°F (2000°C) without any loss in performance." Intrigued, are you not?

Read the article by Solar Atmosphere's Roger Jones and Real J. Fradette, "The Use of Graphite for Vacuum Furnace Fixturing."

 

Step-by-Step Guide To Choose Heat Treating Equipment (English / Español)

If it's time to choose an industrial furnace, let's break it down step by step:

Step One: Quote Request

Step Two: Supplier Selection

Step Three: Study and Evaluation of Offers

Step Four: The Price

Follow this guide and avoid saying things like "The substation and/or the cooling tower did not have the capacity"; "The equipment is not what we expected"; or “They never told us that the furnace needed gas in those capabilities." If there are steps you take when selecting an industrial furnace, let us know in a Reader Feedback note here.

Read the article by Carrasco Hornos Industriales' Carlos Carrasco, "A Guide to Selecting Heat Treating Equipment" or "Guía para la Selección de Equipos para Tratamiento Térmico."

 

Pressure vs. Velocity and the Size of Your Furnace

Vacuum Gas Cooling: Pressure vs. Velocity, Part 1 of 2

If you like the R&D world of heat treat, but also like to be grounded in practical heat treat solutions, this is the article for you. Read about what this commercial heat treat found out about how size relates to the pressure and velocity of vacuum furnace cooling rates. Here are the facts you will learn:

  1. The greatest impact on the cooling performance in a vacuum furnace is to increase the___ ______ within ___ _____.
  2. This is achieved by ______ __ ______ of the ______ ____.

Read the article by Solar Atmosphere's Robert Hill and Gregory Scheuring, "Vacuum Gas Cooling: Pressure vs. Velocity, Part 1 of 2."

 

Energy at Large: A Heat Treat Vacuum Furnace Case Study

Harnessing the Sun: A Heat Treat Case Study with General AtomicsIf you like to read about how heat treaters can be game changers in multinational science projects, this is the article for you. A specially designed vacuum heat treat furnace was commissioned to heat treat critical components in a large energy generator. The heat treating of these components takes 5 weeks to complete; talk about a long, uniform heat treat period.

Read about the energy experiment, the heat treat furnace, and the heat treating process in this technical feature.

Read the article by SECO/VACUUM's Rafal Walczak, "Harnessing the Sun: A Heat Treat Case Study with General Atomics."

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

 

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Excitement at Fever Pitch – Furnaces North America 2022 Happening Now!

/ FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT NEWS

OCHeat treaters travel for miles to attend Furnaces North America 2022, in Indianapolis, IN, for two days of learning and networking. This guide gives some necessary attendee information and can’t-miss highlights from the schedule.

Reach out to the Heat Treat Today team at Booth #622-624, or email us at editor@heattreattoday.com, to connect with us at the show. You can also follow us on social media for show updates.

Where and How?

The Indianapolis Convention Center (ICC), at 100 Capitol Avenue, is the place to be. Check out the parking maps to plan your route and incorporate access via skywalk when planning your arrival. Additionally, scan the QR code below (or click here) to log in to the FNA 2022 resources, including resources to navigate the show floor tomorrow and links to find things to do with colleagues, employees, and clients.

Monday

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From 7:00 AM to 6:00 PM today, you can complete registration and pick up your badge at the ICC outside of hall B. You can do this on your way to the FNA 2022 Kickoff Welcome Reception, which begins at 6:00 PM at the Marriott Downtown 350 W Maryland Street.

Tuesday

Here’s a sample guide of how to maximize your time at the Indianapolis Convention Center on Tuesday, October 4th.

  • 7:00 AM – 5:00 PM: Pick up your badge and register outside hall B of the ICC if you haven’t already done so.
  • 8:30 AM – 11:15 AM: Head to any of the 20 technical sessions located within five meeting rooms.
  • 10:30 AM – 5:30 PM: Tour the FNA Business Exhibition in hall B.
  • 12:00 PM: Lunch at adjoining food court.
  • 4:00 PM – 5:30 PM: Trade Show Floor Reception

What? 

Discover “New Equipment”, “Emerging Technology”, and “Changing Trends” at the technical sessions. The 5 topics that you can explore on Tuesday are Maintenance, Equipment, Energy, Compliance, and The Future.

The following is a sample of some of the technical classes we are looking forward to:

  1. “Heat Treat Robotics . . . .The Present, The Future” Room 124 (8:00 am — 8:35 am)
  2. “Improved Predictive Maintenance Using SCR Power Controllers” Room 120 (8:50 am — 9:25 am)
  3. “Saving Energy & Money in Your Heat Treat Plant” Room 122 (9:40 — 10:15am)
  4. “A Cleaner, Safer and Greener Vacuum Oil Quench Furnace”  Room 121 (9:40 — 10:15am)
  5. “Vacuum Furnace Leaks — What You Need to Know” Room 120 (10:30 am — 11:05 am)

Following these technical sessions, the entire exposition floor of Hall B holds over 135 booths, just waiting to share ideas and innovations. Find Heat Treat Today at Booth #622-624.

Who?

This full list of exhibitors will help you identify the heat treat industry players you want to visit. The time for in-person conversation is invaluable as you navigate new leads. This quick video (or watch below) gives the sense of what an opportunity this is: “You will not want to miss everything heat treating including a packed exhibit hall of the top suppliers in the industry, 35 technical sessions and the best minds in heat treating from both commercial and captive heat treaters.”

See you soon!

 

 

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

 

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Guía para el líder que quiere motivar

/ FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT NEWS INDUSTRIES, OP-ED

op-ed[Está] posicionado no solo para trabajar en conjunto con otros seres humanos sino también para liderarlos; si su potencial se ha de realizar, puede que ya haya entendido bien que en esas personas reposa la verdadera clave del éxito que a futuro pudiera conseguir.

Bill Munn, coach de liderazgo at Bill Munn Management Coaching, wrote this article for Heat Treat Today’s September 2022 Tradeshow print edition. Read the English translation when you click the flag to the right!

Bill Munn
Leadership Coach
Bill Munn Management Coaching
Source: Bill Munn Management Coaching

¡Felicitaciones a Los 40 sub-40 de Heat Treat Today Promoción 2022! (En inglés: Heat Treat Today’s 40 Under 40 Class of 2022, N. del T.) Este galardón constituye un honor que señala a quien lo recibe como portador de una muy importante  y singular responsabilidad.

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Usted es un líder.

Por definición, de aquí se desprende que no se desempeña solo; es más, está posicionado no solo para trabajar en conjunto con otros seres humanos sino también para liderarlos; si su potencial se ha de realizar, puede que ya haya entendido bien que en esas personas reposa la verdadera clave del éxito que a futuro pudiera conseguir.

¿Cómo, pues, lograr su compromiso?

✔ Primer paso: Afiance en sí mismo un espíritu enseñable, asumiendo su rol con la humildad sufi ciente como para buscar el consejo, la claridad y el aprendizaje continuo.

✔ Segundo paso: Aprenda cómo motivar a las personas.

Los tres pilares para motivar a un equipo

Luego de más de cinco décadas de trabajar de cerca con centenares de líderes excelentes junto con sus equipos, he identifi cado y confi rmado vez tras vez que hay tres factores claves para motivar el compromiso y el desempeño de las personas: la visión, la autonomía y el crecimiento.

Visión

Las personas anhelan ser parte de algo importante.

Desean que su actividad tenga significado. Ansían no solo entender la visión del equipo y la empresa a la que pertenecen sino también creer en ella.

Para generar tal visión no hace falta que usted esté dedicado a salvar el mundo. Bastará con que dedique un tiempo a revisar los valores fundamentales de su organización preguntando: <<¿Qué hace que esto sea importante? ¿Qué es imprescindible para que estemos aquí haciendo lo que hacemos?>>, para luego comunicar ese mensaje a su equipo.

Este es un proceso tan poderoso como esencial, uno que demasiadas veces se ha pasado por alto.

Autonomía

Las personas rechazan fuertemente la microgestión. Corresponda o no a la realidad, la microgestión transmite dos mensajes fatales para la motivación: <<No confío en usted>> y <<Creo que usted es incompetente>>.

Por otro lado, el asignar tareas a los miembros del equipo invitándolos a formular preguntas y despejar dudas para luego entrar con fuerza a desempeñarse por sí solos comunica todo lo contrario dando a entender: <<Confío en usted>> y <<Creo lo puede hacer>>.

Motiva de manera increíble.

Ganancia adicional: Los miembros de su equipo aprenderán y crecerán de forma más ágil, logrando un mayor alcance, cuando se les permita el desarrollo autónomo; demostrarán mayor sentido de pertenencia a la organización y su visión.

En pocas palabras, serán más comprometidos y efi caces.

Crecimiento

Las personas anhelan que se les haga progresar; quieren sentir, a lo largo de sus vidas y sus carreras, que están en vías de mejora y crecimiento, perfeccionando cada vez más su quehacer.

El personal suyo desea recibir retroalimentación, asistir a seminarios, participar en programas de formación, leer revistas informativas de peso como esta, y tener acceso a la ayuda, la asesoría y el desarrollo en su esfera particular.

Son demasiados los líderes que se acercan al personal para decir: <<deberías ser mejor en X o te falta avanzar en Y>> sin brindarles el apoyo
para lograrlo, comunicando así el no querer invertir en el éxito a largo plazo de esa persona, lo que a su vez genera que la persona invierta menos de sí en la organización y sus metas.

Si busca un equipo conformado por personas valiosas, apoye a esas personas en su crecimiento demostrando así que son valoradas.

Los resultados de una motivación efectiva

Un equipo motivado se compromete, y un equipo comprometido logra lo propuesto. Como líder de alto potencial usted tiene una oportunidad singular para encender en el personal con el que trabaja una llama, proceso que revertirá en benefi cio de sus metas propias.

Establezca la visión. Libere la autonomía. Fomente el crecimiento. Hacerlo se ha convertido ahora en su responsabilidad y un alto honor, honor que tanto su personal como su carrera le habrá de agradecer.

Le deseamos lo mejor. HTT

 

Sobre el Autor: Acerca del autor: Mediante el desarrollo de la visión estratégica y la resolución de retos en tiempo real, Bill Munn asiste a los ejecutivos en potenciar al máximo sus equipos. Desde su experiencia como veterano de 32 años en coaching empresarial y otrora ejecutivo destacado del Dow 30, Bill viene aportando sabiduría práctica, perspicacia innovadora y herramientas para el actuar contemporáneo a centenares de líderes corporativos a nivel mundial. Magister en administración de empresas y en su momento profesor de fi nanzas y economía, Bill es un conferencista dinámico y autor de best-sellers en Amazon.

 

Para más información:

Póngase en contacto con Bill en: billmunncoaching.com

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

 

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Fringe Friday: GreenIron Furnaces To Recycle Oxidized Metals

/ FEATURED NEWS, FOUNDRY CASTING NEWS, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT

HTD Size-PR Logo

Sometimes our editors find items that are not exactly "heat treat" but do deal with interesting developments in one of our key markets: aerospace, automotive, medical, energy, or general manufacturing. To celebrate getting to the “fringe” of the weekend, Heat Treat Today presents today’s Heat Treat Fringe Friday press release: an agreement between GreenIron and SECO/WARWICK for a reduction furnace line will allow for the recycling of oxidized metals without emissions.

Swedish company GreenIron H2 AB has signed an agreement with the SECO/WARWICK Group, a global manufacturer of metal treatment equipment, for the delivery of a series of furnaces for fossil-free metal production including ore, residuals, and waste recycling.

Edward Murray
CEO
GreenIron
Source: LinkedIn

"We feel that our partnership is a great foundation for rapid growth and a positive impact on emissions and climate change," commented Edward Murray, CEO of GreenIron. "GreenIron has high ambitions in regard to CO₂ reduction, starting with the first furnace, delivered by SECO/WARWICK, and the subsequent first shipment of commercial fossil-free iron in 2023."

The furnaces ordered by GreenIron will be used to recycle oxidized metals without emissions. They will therefore directly contribute to CO₂ emission reduction as each furnace has the capacity to reduce emissions by 56.000 metric tons/yr. The technology will help many enterprises implement "green" solutions and function in harmony with the natural environment.

Sławomir Woźniak, SECO/WARWICK Branded
Sławomir Woźniak
CEO
SECO/WARWICK
Source: secowarwick.com

The metals are extracted from ore or recycled without the release of fossil gases. Iron oxide (magnetite, hematite, wustite) is converted to pure iron by the hydrogen reduction process. In traditional technology, this process takes place in coke furnaces, which results in CO₂ emissions. In the GreenIron furnaces, CO₂ emissions are zero.

“It is also an opportunity for SECO/WARWICK, because together with GreenIron we are creating a production line of completely new furnaces. For the first time, we are working closely with an external partner with technology that comes from outside of our organization,” adds Sławomir Woźniak, CEO of SECO/WARWICK Group.

Reduction furnaces will be available to companies throughout the entire lifespan of iron and other metals – including mining, steelmaking, milling stations, foundries, metal workshops and heavy ashes from incinerators.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

 

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IHEA’s Combustion Seminar: New Knowledge for New Improvements

/ FEATURED NEWS, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT, OP-ED

op-edWith no new knowledge, no new improvements can be made. In the North American heat treating industry, new knowledge is constantly available, whether that be a new technology emerging, a new focus or agenda, or a wave of new people bringing a fresh perspective. The Industrial Heating Equipment Association’s Combustion Seminar wants to welcome these newcomers, both the new technologies and the new faces.

Read all about it in the Combustion Corner installment by Anne Goyer, executive director of the Industrial Heating Equipment Association, in Heat Treat Today's September Trade Show print edition.

Anne Goyer
Executive Director
Industrial Heating & Equipment Association
Source: IHEA

Held alongside IHEA’s Safety Standards and Controls Seminar at the Indiana Convention Center in downtown Indianapolis, the Industrial Heating Equipment Association’s Combustion Seminar will take place on Monday, October 3rd and Tuesday, October 4th. The Combustion Seminar is the longest-running annual heat treating training seminar in the industry. Year after year, IHEA’s Combustion Seminars receive high evaluation ratings from attendees, giving each engineer, manager, technician, and sales representative something he can implement at his individual facility. The Combustion Seminar is a place for heat treaters to learn anything and everything, making it the ideal space to improve manufacturing processes through implementing new information.

This year’s seminar, the 53rd consecutive Combustion Seminar, boasts a new technical session, one that is at the front of everyone’s mind. In the line up this year is a session on hydrogen combustion and decarbonization, an appropriate topic for current times when environmental and safety concerns are particularly important. Hydrogen combustion and decarbonization are beginning to play key roles in manufacturing, and given the uptake in interest, every heat treater is trying to learn how to face the challenges and benefits of these trending topics. How much of the coverage of decarbonization and hydrogen combustion is hype, and how much is legitimate? How many of the big promises these technologies make can be fulfilled? To combat the myth and uncertainty on the subject, the IHEA Combustion Seminar will provide accurate and valuable information for seminar attendees on these important and burgeoning topics.

Heat Treat Today lanyards for
show attendees
Source: IHEA

IHEA’s two-day seminars are for engineers, project managers, sales staff , customer service representatives, maintenance managers, combustion technicians . . . if the job has anything to do with combustion, these seminars will be valuable. New people, both young and not so young, are continuously entering the heat treating industry. These novices need to be trained in combustion basics, but veteran heat treaters also need to learn about new and changing technologies.

With mingling opportunities at lunch and break periods each day, the IHEA Combustion Seminar comes with built-in networking times. Since the seminars also include complimentary registration to Furnaces North America, attendees can continue networking on the FNA show floor. The 17 seminars will include topics such a System Troubleshooting, Combustion Systems & the Environment, and the Problem-Solving Workshop. These 17 sessions will make for a well-rounded perspective on combustion systems.

Pulling together new knowledge, new technology, and new connections for new improvements in the manufacturing process — that is what IHEA’s Combustion Seminar is all about.

For more information on IHEA’s Combustion Seminar, as well as for a complete description of all technical sessions, please visit ihea.org/events.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

 

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2 Power Supplies Upgrade Heat Treat System

/ BRAZING NEWS, FEATURED NEWS, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT

HTD Size-PR LogoA Pennsylvania heat treat supplier recently shipped and commissioned two power supplies used in a continuous brazing furnace for a tool manufacturing company. The new power supplies, rated 125 kW supply and 100 kW, were designed as direct replacements for a pair of existing, obsolete power supplies that continuously failed.

Magnetic Specialties, Inc's power supplies reduce furnace downtime and provide tighter regulation of the furnace temperature which delivers more consistent quality of the braze parts. The brazing furnace has silicon carbide heating elements, which increase in resistance as they age. To compensate for this, the output transformers feature a tapped secondary winding. As the elements age, the client can select a higher output voltage range via the tap switch. The client will use the metering feedback to know when the tap needs to be changed.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

 

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Heat Treat Capabilities “Take Off” at Edwards Air Force Base

/ AEROSPACE HEAT TREAT, ATMOSPHERE AIR FURNACES NEWS, FEATURED NEWS

HTD Size-PR Logo

Edwards Air Force Base, an historic airfield engaged in experimental aviation, is expanding its heat treat capabilities with two dual chamber furnaces.

DELTA H® delivered the two Defender Series dual chamber aerospace heat treating (DCAHT®) systems. These systems were developed for specific requirements of the armed forces; they meet the pyrometry standards of USAF/NAVAIR Tech Order 1-1A-9 and qualify to SAE AMS2750G.

Defender Series are "deployable" and has stackable chambers that can be configured with 500°F, 1200°F or 2000°F maximum temperatures as either dual or single chamber systems. They serve as "universal heat treating systems" for hangar sheet metal back shops that are tasked with “keeping them flying” – and are “mission essential” equipment. In addition to Edwards AFB, these systems are located at Texas and Kansas Air National Guard facilities as well as Beale AFB in Northern California to date.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

 

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Need To Pass a Nadcap Heat Treat Audit?

/ FEATURED NEWS, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT

Source: Ipsen Global

Each Nadcap audit is different, but each accreditation involves key elements that help heat treaters maintain quality and safety standards. Finding instances of nonconformance and implementing corrective actions are two main ways the Nadcap process helps heat treaters keep a high standard. What are the steps needed to complete the Nadcap process?

In this best of the web article, read a break down of the entire Nadcap process. From practical tips like performing a few internal audits before submitting one for review to understanding the difference between minor and major nonconformances, this article will be your go-to on all things Nadcap.

An excerpt:

[blockquote author="" style="1"]Focusing on maintaining global quality standards not only helps ensure the safety of all who use these products, but also helps you continually improve and refine your heat-treatment processes to provide your customers with the best product quality possible.[/blockquote]

Read more at: "Obtaining Nadcap Accreditation: Helping You Pass Your Audit"

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

 

Need To Pass a Nadcap Heat Treat Audit? Read More »

Start Your Week with 4 Heat Treat Articles in Spanish

/ FEATURED NEWS, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT, THERMOCOUPLES TECHNICAL CONTENT, VACUUM FURNACES TECHNICAL CONTENT

OC

At Heat Treat Today, we want to make sure everyone in the North American heat treat industry is well informed so they can be happier and make better decisions. With that in mind, we have been growing our library of Spanish heat treating content.

Below, click the blue headings to learn from Víctor Zacarías about pyrometry standards in the aerospace and automotive industries, from Carlos Carrasco about selecting heat treating equipment, from Bill Munn about leadership and motivation, and from Erika Zarazúa about CQI-9's probe method A. If you'd like to view this content in English, click the America flag icon. 

Pirometría: la normativa para un Procesamiento Térmico confiable en la Industria Automotriz y Aeroespacial

Víctor Zacarías
General Director
Global Thermal Solutions Mexico

"Las operaciones de tratamiento térmico son percibidas generalmente como cajas negras cuyos resultados son poco predecibles. Si bien, entendemos los mecanismos físicos involucrados para modificar las propiedades de un material, los hornos de tratamiento térmico son sistemas termodinámicamente imperfectos, y por ende los resultados finales en ocasiones también lo son."

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"Heat treatment operations are generally perceived as black boxes whose results are not very predictable. Although we understand the physical mechanisms involved in modifying the properties of a certain material, heat treatment furnaces are thermodynamically imperfect, and sometimes the final results are too."

This article first appeared Heat Treat Today's March 2022 Vacuum Furnace print edition.

Guía para la Selección de Equipos para Tratamiento Térmico

Carlos Carrasco
Founder
Carrasco Hornos Industriales

"Este artículo ayuda a los ingenieros a comprar equipos de tratamiento térmico. Hay muchas razones para seleccionar cuidadosamente los hornos industriales. Uno, es el costo del horno en sí y otro, es que el producto que se está tratando térmicamente afectará los resultados de su empresa."

"There are many reasons to select industrial furnaces carefully. One is the cost of the furnace. Another is realizing heat treating will affect the product and the bottom line. There is more specialized engineering in heat treating equipment than is apparent from the outside."

This article first appeared in Heat Treat Today's November 2021 Vacuum Furnace print edition.

Guía para el líder que quiere motivar

Bill Munn
Leadership Coach
Bill Munn
Source: Bill Munn Coaching

Por definición, de aquí se desprende que no se desempeña solo; es más, está posicionado no solo para trabajar en conjunto con otros seres humanos sino también para liderarlos; si su potencial se ha de realizar, puede que ya haya entendido bien que en esas personas reposa la verdadera clave del éxito que a futuro pudiera conseguir ¿Cómo, pues, lograr su compromiso?

By definition, this means that you are not functioning alone. Moreover, you are positioned not only to work with fellow human beings, but to lead them. And if your potential is to be realized, you may already know well that those people are the true key to your future success. So how will you engage them?

This article first appeared in Heat Treat Today's September 2022 print edition.

Guía para conducir pruebas System Accuracy Tests conforme a CQI-9 4ta. Edición

Erika Zarazúa
Regional Purchasing Manager 
Global Thermal Solutions México
Source: Global Thermal Solutions México

"Las pruebas SAT deben realizarse a todos los sistemas de control, monitoreo y registro de los equipos de procesamiento térmico. Esto no aplica para los sistemas de ‘alto-límite” cuya única función es la de proteger al horno de un sobre calentamiento."

"System Accuracy Tests (SATs) must be performed on all control, monitoring, and recording systems of thermal processing equipment. This does not apply to “high limit” systems, whose sole function is to protect the furnace from overheating."

This article first appeared in Heat Treat Today's August 2022 Automotive print edition.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

 

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IHEA Monthly Economic Report: “I don’t really know” and That’s OK

/ FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

The monthly Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA) Executive Economic Summary this September reiterates the point that it has been making for several months this year: economic growth plus negative economic indicators equals “I don’t really know” what will happen in the economy.

Industrial Capacity Utilization
Source: IHEA

First, the summary takes time to look at contradicting economic indicators. The first example is in GDP growth: While Q1 and Q2 exhibited persistent negative GDP growth, Q3 projections of 1.3% positive growth is a promising sign that the threat of a recession is starting to fade. Other indicators also show borderline economic stability and possibly growth; with unemployment rates being low and seeing capacity utilization numbers in normal range and the Purchasing Manager’s Index in expansion zone (both just barely), “there are as many factors suggesting recession as there are factors that point towards slow growth but growth, nonetheless.” The economic summary projects the following in this borderline hopeful situation: “My own analysis of the situation (for what it is worth) is that the US will escape a formal recession in 2022 or 2023 but will experience a downturn of some significance as compared to where we were in 2021.”

Purchasing Managers’ Index
Source: IHEA

Second, the summary evaluates the causes for inflation, a hot topic and a very visible, uncomfortable sign. We’re looking at three variables for this assessment: lockdowns, the energy crisis, and reshoring. “The estimate,” relates the economic summary, “is that the lockdowns cost upwards of $10 trillion in lost wages, shuttered business, health care costs and the like. The $800 billion [in U.S. stimulus money] did not offset the economic loss and was therefore not inflationary. There was a surge in inflation in early 2021 as the restrictions started to lift and people started to spend again but most of that pressure had dissipated by Q3. There would have been reduction in inflation pressure had there not been other factors.” The next cause for inflation, the energy crisis, was caused by the War in the Ukraine since Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine effectively cut off the world’s second largest producer of oil from the global economy. The energy crisis and inability to access many goods after shutdowns and wartime supply chain disruptions has also led to much reshoring in the U.S. With reshoring — an indication of growth — comes near inevitable price increases at the expense of more secure supply chain lines: “As companies return to the U.S., they will naturally encounter higher costs – for labor, for land and the like. They will see higher regulatory costs and will encounter more limits. These will add to the costs even as these companies benefit from a more reliable supply chain.”

Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA
Anne Goyer
Executive Director
IHEA

Check out the full report to see specific index growth and analysis which is available to IHEA member companies. For membership information, and a full copy of the 11-page report, contact Anne Goyer, executive director of the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA). Email Anne by clicking here.

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