HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Economic Indicators: April 2024 Results

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There are four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators gathered by Heat Treat Today each month since June 2023, and this month, we are seeing a marked downturn in expectations across all indicators.

The numbers, compiled in the second week of April, show that responding parties strongly anticipate all four indices — number of inquiry, value of bookings, size of backlogs, and health of manufacturing economy — to grow. However, all projections are significantly down, which would seem to indicate that industry suppliers are approaching April with far more conservative expectations as compared to Q1 2024.

The results from this month’s survey (April) are as follows; numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in the Number of Inquiries from March to April: 51.9
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from March to April: 56.5
  • Anticipated change in Backlog Size from March to April: 51.9
  • Anticipated change in the Health of the Manufacturing Economy from March to April: 51.3

Data for April 2024

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today's Economic Indicators measure and report on four, heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

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Heat Treat Economic Indicators: March 2024 Results

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The four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators, gathered by Heat Treat Today each month since June 2023, indicate high expectations for economic growth on all four heat treat industry indices as we look ahead to March. Read on to see which indices are hitting above last month’s growth expectations and which one is lower in growth compared to February’s expectations.

The numbers, which were compiled in the second week of March, show that responding parties strongly anticipate all four indices — number of inquiry, value of bookings, size of backlogs, and health of manufacturing economy — to grow. Interesting, the number of inquiries is a bit down, as compared to last month, but suppliers are still expecting growth, more so than any previous month, with the exception of February.

The results from this month’s survey (March) are as follows; numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in the Number of Inquiries from February to March: 64.0
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from February to March: 68.4
  • Anticipated change in Backlog Size from February to March: 70.0
  • Anticipated change in the Health of the Manufacturing Economy from February to March: 61.7

Data for March 2024

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four, heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

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Heat Treat Economic Indicators: February 2024 Results

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The four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators gathered by Heat Treat Today each month since June 2023 reflect the highest expectations for economic growth that we’ve seen. For this month of February, suppliers to the industry have particularly high expectations for one indicator.

The numbers, which were compiled in the second week of February, show that responding parties strongly anticipate inquiry levels and value of bookings to grow; it will be interesting to see if expectations for number of inquiries will increase at the same rate in future months. Industry suppliers are also expecting backlogs and overall health of the manufacturing economy to be up this month.

The results from this month’s survey (February) are as follows; numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in the Number of Inquiries from January to February: 71.0
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from January to February: 65.5
  • Anticipated change in Backlog Size from January to February: 59.0
  • Anticipated change in the Health of the Manufacturing Economy from January to February: 57.9

Data for February 2024

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four, heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

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Heat Treat Economic Indicators: January 2024 Results

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The four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators gathered by Heat Treat Today each month since June 2023 each reflect expectations for economic growth in the month of January, with suppliers to the industry predicting a particularly significant swing in expectations for one of the indicators as compared to December 2023.

The numbers, which were compiled the second week of January, show that responding parties anticipate that the number of inquiries will grow significantly, an increase from extreme contraction that was expected in December. So also, the value of January bookings shows an increase in expectations for growth from expected contraction in December. The backlogs indicator continue to reflect anticipated growth, slightly down from December. The overall health of the manufacturing economy indicator is up, especially when compared to December, with growth expected. This is the 8th month of data collection, so keep following this study as this bank of information builds.

The results from this month’s survey (January) are as follows; numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in the Number of Inquiries from December to January: 58.3
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from December to January: 58.9
  • Anticipated change in Backlog Size from December to January: 54.3
  • Anticipated change in the Health of the Manufacturing Economy from December to January: 53.7

Data for January 2024

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four, heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

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Heat Treat Economic Indicators: December 2023 Results

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The four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators gathered by Heat Treat Today each month — starting in June of this year — are predicting contraction along with economic growth for just one indicator in the month of December.

The numbers, which were compiled the first week of December, show that responding parties anticipate inquiry levels will contract significantly as compared to November. So also, the value of December bookings shows a drop in expectations for growth and economic contraction being anticipated this month. For the first time in a while, backlogs indicate decisive anticipated growth. The overall health of the manufacturing economy is expected to remain as it was from November. Please keep in mind that this is only the 7th month of data collection, so keep following this study as this bank of information builds.

The results from this month’s survey (December) are as follows; numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in the Number of Inquiries from November to December: 38.4
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from November to December: 46.1
  • Anticipated change in Backlog Size from November to December: 55.0
  • Anticipated change in the Health of the Manufacturing Economy from November to December: 50.0

Data for November 2023

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four, heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

 

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Heat Treat Economic Indicators: November 2023 Results

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The four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators gathered by Heat Treat Today each month --- starting in June of this year --- are predicting continued growth along with economic contraction for one indicator in the month of November.

The numbers, which were compiled the first week of November, show that responding parties anticipate inquiry levels will continue to be up and show mixed expectations for growth as compared to October. The value of November bookings shows a slight decrease in expectations for growth, though growth is still projected. Backlogs are anticipated to grow by a fractional amount, and the overall health of the manufacturing economy is expected to drop. Please keep in mind that this is only the 6th month of data collection, so keep following this study as this bank of information builds.

The results from this month’s survey (November) are as follows; numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in the Number of Inquiries from October to November: 54.0
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from October to November: 52.5
  • Anticipated change in Backlog Size from October to November: 50.4
  • Anticipated change in the Health of the Manufacturing Economy from October to November: 44.6

Data for November 2023

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website.

Heat Treat Today's Economic Indicators measure and report on four, heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

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Heat Treat Economic Indicators: October 2023 Results

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The four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators gathered by Heat Treat Today each month --- starting in June of this year --- are predicting continued growth along with some economic contraction in the month of October.

The numbers, which were compiled the first week of October, show that responding parties anticipate inquiry levels will turn the corner and be up for October as compared to September and that the value of October bookings will continue to show growth. Backlogs are anticipated to contract by a fractional amount, and the overall health of the manufacturing economy remains slightly down. Please keep in mind that this is only the 5th month of data collection, so keep following this study as this bank of information builds.

The results from this month’s survey (October) are as follows; numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in the Number of Inquiries from September to October: 51.5
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from September to October: 56.5
  • Anticipated change in Backlog Size from September to October: 49.2
  • Anticipated change in the Health of the Manufacturing Economy from September to October: 49.0

Data for October 2023

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website.

Heat Treat Today's Economic Indicators measure and report on four, heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

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IHEA Monthly Economic Report: Q4, New Year, and Beyond

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The monthly Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA) Executive Economic Summary released in December gives forecasts for Q4 results and takes a look into the start of 2023. The 3.9% growth from Q3 is not expected to be matched in Q4, but the spending power of the consumer holds out hope for battling recession.

The 3.9% growth from Q3 is not expected to be matched in Q4 and beyond, but the spending power of the consumer holds out hope for battling recession. The thought is that inflation highs have peaked, and interest rates could lower about halfway into 2023. Heat treaters should note that applicable indices are remaining steady while still dealing with supply chain problems and work force shortages. Of the 10 economic indices in this report, 6 sectors are steady or seeing growth; while 4 are on a downturn.

Holding steady with biggest strength found in automotive.
Source: IHEA

The categories included in seeing maintenance and growth are: New Auto & Light Truck Sales, Steel Consumption, Industrial Capacity Utilization, Metal Pricing, Durable Goods, and Factory Orders. Automotive sales are strong; people are wanting and needing to replace vehicles they've maintained for a long time. "People want new and they are confident enough in their job security to buy a new vehicle."

Automobiles are still in heavy demand due to supply chain issues and need to replace older vehicles.
Source: IHEA

There are no surprises from the Steel Consumption reports, as the "big three sectors are all performing about as expected – vehicle manufacturing, construction and the oil and gas arena." Metal Pricing is seeing a A Tale of Two Cities because copper is affected by political tensions around the world, but aluminum is seeing strong demand, particularly for the aerospace industry.

Interest rates are prohibitive for single-family home purchases.
Source: IHEA

Those indices that are in decline or experiencing drops are: New Home Starts, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Capital Expenditures, and Transportation Activity. New home purchases are difficult for those buyers because the interest rates are high. There is a bit of a bright spot for heat treaters since multi-family home sales are still strong; this means metal products are needed - appliances, window frames, and construction components.

Manufacturers are showing caution in purchases.
Source: IHEA

The PMI "is always a good indicator of overall industrial activity as the purchasing manager will be doing what they do at the start of any industrial process." In the report it's down to 47.7; not an emergency, but very uncomfortable level.

Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA

The report on these indices takes a middle-of-the-road approach. There are no alarmingly sharp drop-offs in the reports, neither is there any drastic growth into the positive numbers; it all comes down to inflation. Economic markers are such that the interest rates are as high as they will get indicate a drop about halfway through the new year. The report looks for some lowering of the numbers to"between4.25% and 4.50%" while the Fed members think the rate "may top out at 5.1%."

Check out the full report to see specific index growth and analysis which is available to IHEA member companies. For membership information, and a full copy of  the 11-page report, contact Anne Goyer, executive director of the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA). Email Anne by clicking here.

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Heat Treat Economic Indicators: August 2023 Results

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The four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators gathered by Heat Treat Today each month — starting in June of this year — are predicting continued growth along with some economic contraction in the month of August.

The numbers, which were compiled the first week of August, show that responding parties anticipate that inquiry levels will be down for August compared to July, but that the value of August bookings will still be more than July. Backlogs are anticipated to shrink where as the overall health of the manufacturing economy is anticipated to accelerate. Please keep in mind that this is only the 3rd month that these numbers have been collected, so it would be unwise to base business decisions on this small selection of data.

The results from this month’s survey (August) are as follows; numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in the Number of Inquiries from July to August: 48.9 
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from July to August: 52.2 
  • Anticipated change in Backlog Size from July to August: 49.0 
  • Anticipated change in the Health of the Manufacturing Economy from July to August: 55.5

Data For August 2023

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four, heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Below are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

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Heat Treat Economic Indicators: July 2023 Results

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Heat Treat Today is releasing its second month of economic indicator numbers for four (4) separate heat treat industry specific indices. Data is gathered on a monthly basis from industry suppliers and is forward-looking.

The results from this month’s survey (July) are as follows; numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in the Number of Inquiries from June to July: 58.8 
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from June to July: 55.0 
  • Anticipated change in Backlog Size from June to July: 51.3 
  • Anticipated change in the Health of the Manufacturing Economy from June to July: 48.3

July results compare activity in June with anticipated activity in July. All four indices continue to be relatively high with the exception of the Health of the Manufacturing Economy index which dipped below 50, indicating expected contraction. The results show that suppliers responding to the survey anticipated that July will be more robust than June. Keep in mind that there are only two data points for each index, so trend lines are relatively meaningless at this early stage in the life of these indicators.

Data For July 2023

The four index numbers will be reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and will be made available on our website. 

The questionnaire is sent out monthly to over 800 heat treat industry suppliers. If you are interested in receiving the monthly questionnaire and results, please subscribe by clicking here. 

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