HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for May: Stable Outlook Continues

/ HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Today has gathered the four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators for May 2026. The results reinforce a continued growth outlook from the April 2026 predictions, with all four indices remaining above the growth threshold.

May’s data points to anticipated continued growth across the heat treat industry at a more measured pace than the stronger gains forecast in April. Inquiries are projected to remain steady at 63.0 (unchanged from April). Bookings are expected to remain firmly in growth territory at 57.5 (from 62.0 in April). The Backlog index forecasts healthy workloads at 60.7 (from 66.3 in April). Meanwhile, the Health of the Manufacturing Economy index signals continued optimism at 57.1 (from 62.5 in April).

May’s indicators suggest suppliers anticipate a stable operating environment heading into late spring and early summer production cycles. While several indices moderated from April’s stronger projections, all four metrics continue to reflect expected expansion rather than contraction — pointing to sustained activity across aerospace, automotive, energy, and general manufacturing markets.

The results from this month’s survey (May) are as follows: numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in Number of Inquiries from April to May: 63.0
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from April to May: 57.5
  • Anticipated change in Size of Backlog from April to May: 60.7
  • Anticipated change in Health of the Manufacturing Economy from April to May: 57.1

Data for May 2026

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data collection began in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for May: Stable Outlook Continues Read More »

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for April: Growth Outlook Holds

/ HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Today has gathered the four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators for April 2026. The results suggest continued forward-looking stability compared to the March 2026 predictions.

April’s data points to anticipated continued growth across the heat treat industry, as all four indices remain above the growth threshold. Inquiries are projected to remain strong at 63.0 (from 63.9 in March). Bookings are expected to strengthen to 62.0 (up from 57.5 in March). The Backlog index forecasts a notable increase to 66.3 (up from 55.5 in March). Meanwhile, the Health of the Manufacturing Economy index points to a more confident outlook at 62.5 (up from 58.0 in March).

April’s indicators suggest suppliers to the heat treat industry anticipate steady-to-strengthening demand conditions in the month ahead, with particular momentum in backlog and bookings supporting operational continuity. With all four metrics projected to remain comfortably in growth territory, the outlook reflects a manufacturing environment where suppliers can expect continued activity from heat treaters, supported by improving confidence and sustained demand across key markets as the second quarter begins.

The results from this month’s survey (April) are as follows: numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in Number of Inquiries from March to April: 63.0
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from March to April: 62.0
  • Anticipated change in Size of Backlog from March to April: 66.3
  • Anticipated change in Health of the Manufacturing Economy from February to March: 62.5

Data for April 2026

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data collection began in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for April: Growth Outlook Holds Read More »

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for March: Continued Growth Expected

/ HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Today has gathered the four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators for March 2026. The March results show continued stability compared to the February 2026 predictions.

March’s data indicates anticipated continued growth across the heat treat industry, as all four indices remain above the growth threshold. Inquiries are projected to stay strong at 63.9 (from 67.5 in February). Bookings are expected to hold in healthy expansion territory at 57.5 (from 58.2 in February). The Backlog index continues to forecast growth at 55.5 (up from 52.5 in February). Finally, the Health of the Manufacturing Economy index growth expectations remain constant at 58.0 (up from 57.9 in February).

March’s indicators show suppliers anticipating steady demand from heat treaters in the month ahead. With all four metrics projected to remain comfortably in growth territory, the outlook points to continued activity from shops supporting aerospace, automotive, energy, and general manufacturing markets as we move further into the spring production cycle.

The results from this month’s survey (March) are as follows: numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in Number of Inquiries from February to March: 63.9
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from February to March: 57.5
  • Anticipated change in Size of Backlog from February to March: 55.5
  • Anticipated change in Health of the Manufacturing Economy from February to March: 58.0

Data for March 2026

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data collection began in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for March: Continued Growth Expected Read More »

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for February: Broad Stability

/ HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Today has gathered the four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators for February 2026. The February results show building momentum compared to the January 2026 predictions.

February’s data points to a steady manufacturing environment, as all four indices remain above the growth threshold, driven by a notable jump in expectations for growth in the Number of Inquiries at 67.5 (up from 56.9 in January). Bookings stayed firmly in growth territory, reflecting stable demand at 58.2 (from 59.5 in January). The Backlog index showed modest softening but remained neutral, indicating balance rather than decline at 52.5 (from 57.8 in January). Finally, the Health of the Manufacturing Economy index continued its upward trend at 57.9 (up from 56.1 in January).

February’s indicators reinforce a theme of stability with underlying momentum. While month-to-month fluctuations remain, the overall picture points to resilience and selective strengthening as the industry moves deeper into the first quarter.

The results from this month’s survey (February) are as follows: numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in Number of Inquiries from January to February: 67.5
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from January to February: 58.2
  • Anticipated change in Size of Backlog from January to February: 52.5
  • Anticipated change in Health of the Manufacturing Economy from January to February: 57.9

Data for February 2026

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data collection began in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for February: Broad Stability Read More »

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for January: A Strong Start to the New Year

/ HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Today has gathered the four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators for January 2026. The January results show encouraging momentum compared to the December 2025 predictions.

January’s indices show suppliers to the industry anticipate significant growth across all four key metrics. Inquiries had a robust uptick at 56.9 (up from 51.3 in December). Bookings demonstrated a healthy increase at 59.5 (up from 56.3 in December). The Backlog index rebounded dramatically, swinging the metric from contraction back into solid growth territory at 57.8 (up from 46.3 in December). Finally, the Health of the Manufacturing Economy index continues to reflect expectations for an encouraging backdrop for heat treating demand at 56.1 (up from 53.8 in December).

January’s indicators reveal a heat treating industry hitting its stride as we enter 2026. The across-the-board improvements — particularly the dramatic backlog recovery — paint a picture of renewed vitality and momentum. With all four metrics showing solid growth, the industry appears well-positioned for a strong start to the year.

The results from this month’s survey (January) are as follows: numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in Number of Inquiries from December to January: 56.9
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from December to January: 59.5
  • Anticipated change in Size of Backlog from December to January: 57.8
  • Anticipated change in Health of the Manufacturing Economy from December to January: 56.1

Data for January 2026

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data collection began in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for January: A Strong Start to the New Year Read More »

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for December: Mixed Signals with Moderate Growth

/ HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Today has gathered the four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators for December 2025. The December results suggest more limited growth than what was predicted in November of 2025.

December’s indices showed modest expansion with mixed momentum across different indicators. The Inquiries stayed moderately positive at 51.3 (from 56.5 in November). Bookings are encouraging at 56.3 (up from 55 in November). The Backlog index is in contraction territory at 46.3 (from 55 in November). Finally, the Health of the Manufacturing Economy index showed moderate growth at 53.8 (from 56.5 in November).

The data suggests cautious optimism but warrants close monitoring of inquiry trends and backlog levels in coming months.

The results from this month’s survey (December) are as follows: numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in Number of Inquiries from November to December: 51.3
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from November to December: 56.3
  • Anticipated change in Size of Backlog from November to December: 46.3
  • Anticipated change in Health of the Manufacturing Economy from November to December: 53.8

Data for December 2025

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for December: Mixed Signals with Moderate Growth Read More »

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for November: Strong Growth Markers

/ HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Today has gathered the four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators for November 2025. The November industry-specific economic indicators reinforce the overall trend toward growth that began in September of 2025.

November’s industry-specific economic indicators showed all four indices in growth. The Inquiries stayed in growth, rising to 56.5 (from 50.6 in October). Bookings rose to 55.0 (from 50.7 in October). The Backlog index rose out of contraction to 55.0 (up from 47.5 in October). Finally, the Health of the Manufacturing Economy index remained in growth at 56.5 (up from 52.8 in October).

All of the graphs suggest that the undercurrent of growth, which began in late summer, is continuing to rise as we look to the end of the year.

The results from this month’s survey (November) are as follows: numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in Number of Inquiries from October to November: 56.5
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from October to November: 55.0
  • Anticipated change in Size of Backlog from October to November: 55.0
  • Anticipated change in Health of the Manufacturing Economy from October to November: 56.5

Data for November 2025

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.Com

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for November: Strong Growth Markers Read More »

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for October: Growth-Oriented

/ HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Today has gathered the four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators for October 2025. The October industry-specific economic indicators slowed after an intense upward surge was anticipated in September but still reflects anticipated growth for the heat treating industry.

October’s industry-specific economic indicators showed three indices in growth with one index dipping into contraction. The Inquiries stayed in growth, lowering to 50.6 (from 60 in September). Bookings held position in growth at 50.7 (down from 64.4 in September). The Backlog index slipped into contraction at 47.5 (down from 59.3 in September). Finally, the Health of the Manufacturing Economy index remained in growth at 52.8 (compared to 58.4 in September).

The graphs overall suggest that the undercurrent of growth, which began in late summer, is holding steady as we enter the fall season.

The results from this month’s survey (October) are as follows: numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in Number of Inquiries from September to October: 50.6
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from September to October: 50.7
  • Anticipated change in Size of Backlog from September to October: 47.5
  • Anticipated change in Health of the Manufacturing Economy from September to October: 52.8

Data for October 2025

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.Com

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for October: Growth-Oriented Read More »

Tracking the Heat Treat Economy

/ HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS, PUBLISHER'S PAGE

Heat Treat Today publishes twelve print magazines annually and included in each is a letter from the publisher, Doug Glenn. This letter is from the September 2025 Annual People of Heat Treat print edition.

Feel free to contact Doug at doug@heattreattoday.com if you have a question or comment. 

Knowing whether the North American thermal processing economy is up or down compared to last month or last year is a question that many want to know. And, as you may already know, there are essentially ZERO industry-specific economic indicators measuring our market. Except for one — Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators, or the heat treat economic indicators (HTEI).

A Little History

A little history and then let’s discuss Heat Treat Today’s HTEI. Back in the mid-1990s or early 2000s, I and the team at Industrial Heating established the first industry-specific economic indicators. Those indices survived for roughly 20 years before passing into oblivion when Industrial Heating shut their doors in 2023.

The data for the indicators were not saved…to the best of my knowledge. During those 20 years, many, many companies in the thermal processing industry relied on the data from those indices to help plan their business. I recall specifically speaking to one of the top-level guys at Bodycote who confessed that they used the economic indicators together with some other macro-economic data to help with their annual strategic planning. There were many others as well who either called or emailed asking questions about the indicators or asking for permission to use them in reports.

After Industrial Heating shuttered the indices, Heat Treat Today picked them up and has been collecting and reporting industry-specific economic data since that time.

The 4 Indices

There are four indices. All four are forward looking and none require a company to report any numbers back to us. Here’s how they work.

On the first business day of each month, Heat Treat Today sends an email survey to over 800 supplier contacts in the North American heat treat market. Recipients are asked four simple opinion questions. All four questions ask essentially the same thing: Do you think the next 30 days will be better or worse or the same as the past 30 days? We ask this question for four specific areas:

  1. The number and/or value of inquiries
  2. The number and/or value of bookings
  3. The size of the company’s backlog
  4. The general health of the manufacturing economy

Respondents pick a number between −10 and +10 for each of the four questions with −10 being much, much worse and +10 being much, much better. Respondents can also skip one or more questions if they have no opinion or do not want to share.

The responses are aggregated and converted into an index very similar to the Purchasing Managers Index where the index number 50 represents no change, numbers above 50 represent growth, and numbers below 50 represent contraction.

More Responses Are Better

As with any statistical analysis, the larger the sample set, the more reliable the data. This is true for HTEI as well. With over 800 solicitations going out each month, we’re getting a pretty decent response, but more responses would be better. Responding to the survey takes less than two minutes, so time is not really an issue. No numbers need to be compiled or calculated to respond, which keeps it simple. The questions are all “opinion” questions about whether you anticipate the next 30 days will be better than the past 30 days.

We would love to have you join the ranks of people that respond regularly to the HTEI monthly emails. If you would like to receive the monthly survey on the first business day of each month, please send your email address to me and I’ll add you to the list. You can email me at doug@heattreattoday.com.

Thanks for participating. 

Doug Glenn
Publisher
Heat Treat Today
For more information: Contact Doug at
doug@heattreattoday.com

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.Com

Tracking the Heat Treat Economy Read More »

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for September: Surge of Growth

/ HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Today has gathered the four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators for September 2025. August industry-specific economic indicators showed stagnation with hope for a future upswing and September predicts a positive surge of growth.

September’s industry-specific economic indicators showed all four indices jumping into growth. The Inquiries index rose from no change into growth at 56.0 (from 50 in August). Bookings leaped up to 64.4 (from 47.2 in August). The Backlog index rose to 59.3 (from 46.3 in August). Finally, the Health of the Manufacturing Economy index increased to 58.4 (compared to 48.0 in August).

The graphs overall suggest that the undercurrent of growth, which began in late summer, is seeing a substantial increase, giving hope for a positive fourth quarter of 2025.

The results from this month’s survey (September) are as follows: numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in Number of Inquiries from August to September: 56.0
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from August to September: 64.4
  • Anticipated change in Size of Backlog from August to September: 59.3
  • Anticipated change in Health of the Manufacturing Economy from August to September: 58.4

Data for September 2025

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.Com

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for September: Surge of Growth Read More »