DUAL PERSPECTIVES: The Heat Treat Shop of 2050
Changes are inevitable, but the world today is changing so rapidly that it’s constantly keeping us on our toes. Do two men from different parts of the world, both with significant experience within the heat treating community, have vastly different perspectives on the happenings in the heat treat industry?
We want to find out, so we asked a question that focuses on the world of heat treating to Thomas Schneidewind, the editor-in-chief of heat processing magazine, and Doug Glenn, the publisher and founder of Heat Treat Today. The question: What does the heat treat shop of 2050 look like?
Thomas’s expertise lies in the European market while Doug’s resides in the North American market. We will feature their responses in each print magazine. Will their views align? Time will tell. Enjoy this second installment of an ongoing column. This column was first published in the June 2022 Heat Treat Buyers Guide print edition.
What Does the Heat Treat Shop of 2050 Look Like?
Thomas Schneidewind, Editor-in-Chief, heat processing magazine
The Limits of Digitalization
Editor-in-Chief
heat processing Magazine
Do you still remember the New Economy? The predictions of some economists at the beginning of the internet economy heralded the end of the classic business cycle when it vanished into thin air in March 2000 – just like the internet bubble on the stock market.
However, a look back at the turn of the millennium shows that many ideas were formulated back then that are only now – more than 20 years later – changing our lives. At this point, I would like to recall The Cluetrain Manifesto, the internet bible of the first hour. This document sets out 95 theses for the new corporate culture in the digital age. Thesis 1 states, “Markets are conversations.” Thesis 19 says, “Companies can now communicate directly with their markets. If they don’t seize this opportunity, it could be their last.”
Today, real-time communication is commonplace. Many companies are designing their workflows to be flexible and able to respond quickly to the needs of their customers and employees. One example: LOI Thermprocess GmbH relies on networked working at its new location in Duisburg, Germany. The central component of the concept is a digital room. From here, employees around the world can take virtual tours with customers. They walk through the plant with a terminal device and employees of the plant manufacturer interact with them remotely.
The SMS group will also implement even closer cooperation along the entire value chain at its new site in Mönchengladbach. The Technology, Service, and Digitalization Campus currently under construction will enable agile working in a 5G infrastructure and offer generous social and communication areas.
In heat treatment, digitization is making an important contribution to implementing the changeover in automated drive technology production. Significantly higher speeds of electrified drives and the resulting change in stress on components require heat treatment that meets these requirements. The high number of variants in drive technology also leads to smaller production sizes – the plants have to be designed more flexibly. In this context, digitization plays an important role.
Another aspect is the work in plant engineering with digital twins. Digital models can be used to increase efficiency in production. It is also about speed in the development of plants and the optimization of processes. The result of any digitization strategy is an increase in competitiveness.
Since almost anything is technically feasible today – at least in theory – the question is rather about the limits of digitization. These are manifold in nature: starting with heterogeneous IT landscapes in companies. These make cross-process integration difficult in regard to data security, (which apparently cannot be guaranteed), to dystopian fears of the replacement of humans by machines, (which stands in the way of the acceptance of digital solutions). In other words, digitization must always remain only a tool, not an end in itself. We recognize this most when the digital space prevents genuine personal communication.
Doug Glenn, Publisher, Heat Treat Today
Publisher and Founder
Heat Treat Today
Roughly 30 years ago, I asked this same question to the publishing staff of Industrial Heating magazine. I was their publisher at that time and the answers were intriguing. One person predicted that we would not have phones on our desks and that we would do most of our communication over our computers. Smart phones were not a thing at that time, so that prediction seemed far-fetched, but the “no phones on our desks” prediction has proven to be pretty much true.
What a 2050 heat treat shop/department will look like will be largely dependent on the type of work being processed. For captive shops, we should fully expect that these shops will be nearly 100% automated and self-governing. This includes incoming material analysis, load configuration optimization, multi-furnace utilization schedules, and part-by-part processing analysis – all will be done without human intervention. We will undoubtedly see more artificial intelligence including the resolution of unexpected problem situations that arise during the heat treating process.
More importantly, the idea of a distinct heat treat department will be less and less prevalent. By 2050, the vast majority of captive heat treatments will be done in-line with the manufacturing process with little or no interventions from humans. Washing, fixturing/loading, temperature measuring and control (most of which will be done continuously with full-part, non-contact infrared scanning), and inspection will all be done autonomously.
Most parts will be heat treated individually with single-part traceability/accountability.
The need for heat treat will be minimized with advances in the development of nanomaterials and the ability to designer-build alloys with specific metallurgical/mechanical properties.
Equipment controls and process control will be remote and cloud-based. These are some of the characteristics for captive shops where product variability is low and volumes are high.
For commercial heat treat shops where variability is high and volumes are relatively low, much of the same will be true with less and less human interaction needed. Nonetheless, these job shops will still have a higher need for human interaction than the captive shops. Commercial shops, however, will be much more highly automated than they are today, especially when it comes to part recognition and the recipes associated with those parts.
Finally, I don’t see heat treating as a carbon-free activity in 30 years. In fact, as the need for energy grows, I see the heat treat industry continuing to use carbon-based fuels. The only thing that will change in the next 30 years is the opinion that carbon is the devil. Although much slower moving, I think the world’s opinion about the evils of carbon will change much like the anti-cancer diet du jour in today’s world. In 2050, carbon will no longer be a dirty word.
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