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Changes are inevitable, but the world today is changing so rapidly that it’s constantly keeping us on our toes. Do two men from different parts of the world, both with significant experience within the heat treating community, have vastly different perspectives on the happenings in the heat treat industry?

We want to find out, so we asked a question that focuses on the world of heat treating to Thomas Schneidewind, the editor-in-chief of heat processing magazine, and Doug Glenn, the publisher and founder of Heat Treat Today. The question: What does the heat treat shop of 2050 look like?

Thomas’s expertise lies in the European market while Doug’s resides in the North American market. We will feature their responses in each print magazine. Will their views align? Time will tell. Enjoy this second installment of an ongoing column. This column was first published in the June 2022 Heat Treat Buyers Guide print edition.

What Does the Heat Treat Shop of 2050 Look Like?

Thomas Schneidewind, Editor-in-Chief, heat processing magazine

The Limits of Digitalization

Do you still remember the New Economy? The predictions of some economists at the beginning of the internet economy heralded the end of the classic business cycle when it vanished into thin air in March 2000 – just like the internet bubble on the stock market.

However, a look back at the turn of the millennium shows that many ideas were formulated back then that are only now – more than 20 years later – changing our lives. At this point, I would like to recall The Cluetrain Manifesto, the internet bible of the first hour. This document sets out 95 theses for the new corporate culture in the digital age. Thesis 1 states, “Markets are conversations.” Thesis 19 says, “Companies can now communicate directly with their markets. If they don’t seize this opportunity, it could be their last.”

Today, real-time communication is commonplace. Many companies are designing their workflows to be flexible and able to respond quickly to the needs of their customers and employees. One example: LOI Thermprocess GmbH relies on networked working at its new location in Duisburg, Germany. The central component of the concept is a digital room. From here, employees around the world can take virtual tours with customers. They walk through the plant with a terminal device and employees of the plant manufacturer interact with them remotely.

The SMS group will also implement even closer cooperation along the entire value chain at its new site in Mönchengladbach. The Technology, Service, and Digitalization Campus currently under construction will enable agile working in a 5G infrastructure and offer generous social and communication areas.

In heat treatment, digitization is making an important contribution to implementing the changeover in automated drive technology production. Significantly higher speeds of electrified drives and the resulting change in stress on components require heat treatment that meets these requirements. The high number of variants in drive technology also leads to smaller production sizes – the plants have to be designed more flexibly. In this context, digitization plays an important role.

Another aspect is the work in plant engineering with digital twins. Digital models can be used to increase efficiency in production. It is also about speed in the development of plants and the optimization of processes. The result of any digitization strategy is an increase in competitiveness.

Since almost anything is technically feasible today – at least in theory – the question is rather about the limits of digitization. These are manifold in nature: starting with heterogeneous IT landscapes in companies. These make cross-process integration difficult in regard to data security, (which apparently cannot be guaranteed), to dystopian fears of the replacement of humans by machines, (which stands in the way of the acceptance of digital solutions). In other words, digitization must always remain only a tool, not an end in itself. We recognize this most when the digital space prevents genuine personal communication.

Doug Glenn, Publisher, Heat Treat Today

Roughly 30 years ago, I asked this same question to the publishing staff of Industrial Heating magazine. I was their publisher at that time and the answers were intriguing. One person predicted that we would not have phones on our desks and that we would do most of our communication over our computers. Smart phones were not a thing at that time, so that prediction seemed far-fetched, but the “no phones on our desks” prediction has proven to be pretty much true.

What a 2050 heat treat shop/department will look like will be largely dependent on the type of work being processed. For captive shops, we should fully expect that these shops will be nearly 100% automated and self-governing. This includes incoming material analysis, load configuration optimization, multi-furnace utilization schedules, and part-by-part processing analysis – all will be done without human intervention. We will undoubtedly see more artificial intelligence including the resolution of unexpected problem situations that arise during the heat treating process.

More importantly, the idea of a distinct heat treat department will be less and less prevalent. By 2050, the vast majority of captive heat treatments will be done in-line with the manufacturing process with little or no interventions from humans. Washing, fixturing/loading, temperature measuring and control (most of which will be done continuously with full-part, non-contact infrared scanning), and inspection will all be done autonomously.

Most parts will be heat treated individually with single-part traceability/accountability.

The need for heat treat will be minimized with advances in the development of nanomaterials and the ability to designer-build alloys with specific metallurgical/mechanical properties.

Equipment controls and process control will be remote and cloud-based. These are some of the characteristics for captive shops where product variability is low and volumes are high.

For commercial heat treat shops where variability is high and volumes are relatively low, much of the same will be true with less and less human interaction needed. Nonetheless, these job shops will still have a higher need for human interaction than the captive shops. Commercial shops, however, will be much more highly automated than they are today, especially when it comes to part recognition and the recipes associated with those parts.

Finally, I don’t see heat treating as a carbon-free activity in 30 years. In fact, as the need for energy grows, I see the heat treat industry continuing to use carbon-based fuels. The only thing that will change in the next 30 years is the opinion that carbon is the devil. Although much slower moving, I think the world’s opinion about the evils of carbon will change much like the anti-cancer diet du jour in today’s world. In 2050, carbon will no longer be a dirty word.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com

Changes are inevitable, but the world today is changing so rapidly that it’s constantly keeping us on our toes. Do two men from different parts of the world and lots of experience within the heat treating community have vastly different perspectives on the happenings in the heat treat industry?

We want to find out, so we asked a question that focuses on the world of heat treating to Thomas Schneidewind, the editor-in-chief of heat processing magazine, and Doug Glenn, the publisher and founder of Heat Treat Today. The question: Will the war in Ukraine impact the heat treat industry?

Thomas’s expertise lies in the European market while Doug’s resides in the North American market. We will feature their responses in each print magazine. Will their views align? Time will tell. Enjoy this first installment of an ongoing column. This column was first published in Heat Treat Today’s May 2022 Induction Heating print edition.

Will the War in Ukraine Impact the Heat Treat Industry?

Will, or how will, the war between Russia and Ukraine directly or indirectly impact the industry? What immediately comes to mind?

Thomas Schneidewind, Editor-in-Chief, heat processing magazine

First of all, the war in Ukraine is a humanitarian catastrophe. And the first war in Europe since 1945 marks a turning point in history. It has a strong impact on the global economy and hits the thermprocess industry in particular. The exploding energy prices lead to shutdowns of sites in the steel industry. That means that some investments will be frozen.

Europe’s Turning Point

Due to the economic downturn more and more companies are facing another difficult year. Machine and plant builders are affected by the imposed sanctions. Most of the companies are engaged in Russia and in Ukraine as well. One example: Against the background of the war in Ukraine and the human suffering associated with it, SMS group has ceased its main business activities in Russia and Belarus, with the exception of safety-critical maintenance work. New orders will not be accepted. All companies who have strong relationships with clients in Russia and Ukraine are taking care of refugees. SMS will be taking in one hundred families from Ukraine at its German locations in Hilchenbach and Mönchengladbach.

In Europe we see a completely new set up of the political agenda. Specifically, the German so called Energiewende (the country’s planned transition to a low-carbon, nuclear-free economy) will be pushed by the decision makers. The German economy has a long way to go to be independent from Russian gas and oil. The war will affect people and businesses all over the world – we see a historical turning point. For Europe and for the whole world.

Doug Glenn, Publisher, Heat Treat Today

The first thing that needs to be clearly communicated is that our thoughts and prayers are with all of those being adversely affected by this war. The loss of human life, personal freedom, and property are the most important impacts of this crisis. Everything else – including what follows in this short column – is somewhat insignificant.

Energy Shortages

Higher energy prices caused by supply shortages are and will continue to happen. More so today than any time in history, markets are global and what happens halfway around the world will have an impact everywhere. The U.S. has imported nearly 20% of its energy from Russia, and with that supply being cut off, we are and will continue to see rising gas, natural gas, and oil prices.

The U.S. could do more to help ourselves and the world through this crisis, however. Mark Mills from the Manhattan Institute asserts that today, with oil prices at $120 per barrel, the U.S. is producing 1.5 million FEWER barrels of oil than we were last year when oil prices were only $60 per barrel. The energy problem in the U.S. is not fundamentally a lack of energy and it is not a market problem. It is a political problem caused by those who have pushed for “green” at all costs.

Supply Chain

Supply chains are and will continue to be disrupted. Being the largest economy in the world and geographically removed from the crisis, I anticipate that U.S. supply chains may not be as badly hurt as those in Europe, but the disruptions will continue. As we all know, if a manufacturer is missing just ONE PART, the entire end-product is on hold. It is completely unpredictable how and when this will impact the North American heat treat industry, but it is safe to say that it is and will continue taking a toll.

Increased National Debt

Probably the most significant long-term impact of the crisis is the continued irresponsible growth in national debt. Now exceeding $30 trillion, our country does not need a war to incur more debt. But as we all know, there is nothing like war to drive national debt through the roof.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.com