IHEA’s Economic Summary Reports “Steady as She Goes”

November 8, 2019 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

New Auto/Light Truck Sales continue to rise

Despite predictions that trade wars, oil prices, and cautious business decisions would slow economic growth, the economic readings, reported monthly by the Industrial Heating Equipment Association’s Executive Economic Summary, “show some of that caution, but many had expected a drastic reduction in activity by this point, and that has not emerged.”

Trending upward were nine areas including those with a small bump from the sales of new automobiles and light trucks. This steady rise has been reflected throughout the year, from last December’s high at 1,749 million to this month’s 1,718 million.

Over the past several months there has been a marked improvement in metal price data. The PMI New Orders that had been on a sharp decline over the past months have leveled off and are similar to last month’s reading.

Metals Pricing shows distinct improvement over last several months

The biggest jump was reflected in the new home starts with multi-family and high-end sectors driving the market; additionally, there was a bump in commercial building. Steel consumption also saw a rise due to the demand of vehicle manufacturers.

According to IHEA’s economist, if there is an overall conclusion it’s that most of the dire predictions concerning the economy have not come to fruition, however, there remains considerable unease. “The variables have been hard to determine–much less predictable.”

Ann Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA — Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA

The 12-page monthly report is comprised of an introductory summary page, and then one page each to analyze in detail eleven indices chosen specifically for their impact on the thermal processing market.

To receive a full copy of this report, contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA

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Heat Treat Economy Trending Positive, IHEA Reports

July 31, 2019 / HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Seven of the eleven economic indicators reported monthly by the Industrial Heating Equipment Association’s Executive Economic Summary trended upward while only four softened. Overall industry growth continues to be solid with only a few signs of slowing.

Among the upward movers are vehicle sales, new home starts, steel consumption, capacity utilization, and durable goods orders. These five and two others lead the way with positive growth albeit small movements upward.

The four indices that slumped were PMI, transportation, metal prices, and factory orders.

According to IHEA’s economist, the economy continues to be strong even though many had assumed there would be a more significant softening by this time. Although the southward moving indices are worrisome, the number and persistence of the positive indices lend confidence that the heat treat economy will continue strong in the months ahead.

The full report from IHEA is 12 pages in length and available to IHEA member companies. To see the full report, contact Anne Goyer at IHEA for details on membership in IHEA. Anne Goyer can be reached by email by clicking here. More information about IHEA can be found on the web at www.ihea.org.

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IHEA Monthly Economic Indices — 5 Up, 7 Down

December 3, 2018 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Vehicle sales, durable goods orders, capacity utilization, and factory orders were four of the five indices trending upward.

Housing, metal prices, capital expenditures, and the purchasing manager’s index were among the seven indices that suffered in October. According to IHEA’s economist, the most disturbing of the declining indexes is the decline in the Purchasing Manager’s Index, which was more than anticipated. Overall, however, all of the declining numbers are still well above historic averages showing that the economy continues to be strong.

“. . . but it is important to note that even with the declines in some sectors, the overall status of these readings remains higher than it had been in several years.”

~ Excerpt from IHEA’s Monthly Executive Economic Summary

The Purchasing Managers Index took a significant dip in October.

Automobile and light truck sales continue to be strong in October.

Analysis of all 12 indices is presented monthly to IHEA member companies and is available by contacting Ann Goyer at ann@goyermgt.com or at (941) 373-1830.

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9 of 11 Indices Up in IHEA Economic Report

October 31, 2018 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

According to IHEA’s monthly economic report to member companies, nine of the eleven indices are up and the only two that are not up are still quite strong. To get the weak indices out of the way, here they are: Purchasing Managers Index (which is still quite high), and the Transportation Activity Index (which also is quite high). Both showed slippage in September, but neither is a focus of worry.

PMI for September showed slight reductions, but is still strong overall.

Transportation Activity Index was slightly off for September, but still quite strong.

On the lead page of the report, the following summary paragraph appears:

The nine categories that ended up in positive territory include “new automobile/light truck sales” and this reflects the fact that consumers are still quite confident about their job security and have no issue with taking on debt to buy a new car or truck. The “new home sales” category is healthy, although it is important to note that there is a deepening division between the cities that are seeing growth between 20% and 40% and the those that are shrinking. It has all come down to which cities are generating jobs. The existing home market has not been quite as lively as the new home sector and it is much the larger of the two. The “steel consumption” category is still reflecting the desire on the part of steel consumers to hoard cheaper steel, but there has also been evidence of returning steel demand in everything from vehicles to pipelines to construction activity. The “metal prices” readings are all going up and that has been anticipated for some time. The only one that hasn’t is gold and that would suggest that fewer people are seeking shelter from inflation in this metal. The other industrial metals are all going up in response to increased demand.

The 12-page report goes on to offer in-depth analysis of all 11 indices and what impact each might have on the thermal processing industry. The full report is available for review from the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (www.ihea.org) and is an exclusive benefit of membership in the organization. If you’re interested in seeing a copy of the report, contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA at Anne@GoyerMgt.com.

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IHEA Monthly Economic Report — Stability or Confusion?

July 27, 2018 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT

We begins this month’s economic report with a special request: Please register and attend the International ThermProcess Summit (ITPS) in Atlanta next week, July 30-August 1. This event, sponsored by IHEA, is meant for high-level executives in the heat treating industry including manufacturers with in-house heat treat as well as industry suppliers and contract heat treaters. Click here for more information. Thank you. Now on to our report…

IHEA Transportation Index June 2018 — Transportation was up strongly in June. Source: IHEA Monthly Economic Report

This month’s Industrial Heating Equipment Association (www.ihea.org) economic summary report shows sustained growth in nearly all sectors. The report, issued monthly to key executives whose companies are members of IHEA, summarizes approximately 12 indicators determined to be important to the thermal processing market. These indices include metal prices, housing starts, durable goods orders, purchasing managers index, credit managers index, a transportation index, new car & light truck sales, as well as others. The 12-13 page report, provided to IHEA by The Armada Group, IHEA’s exclusive economic advisor, provides not just a summary of the index movements, but an in depth explanation of the factors affecting each index. The report has been a valuable tool for key executives in IHEA member companies.

IHEA Steel Consumption Index — Steel consumption was up significantly in June. Source: IHEA Economic Survey

This month’s report showed an increase in the transportation index, steel consumption, and housing starts. Flat this month were factory orders, durable goods, and capital expenditures, as well as the PMI and industrial capacity utilization. Tariffs, or the threat of tariffs, continue to loom large over the direction of the economy. It is speculated that steel consumption is up strongly due to preemptive purchases, purchases made by many manufactures in advance of what they consider will be significant tariff price hikes.

For a complete copy of the monthly report, please email Anne Goyer.

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IHEA Report for March Shows Surge in Vehicle Sales, Home Starts

March 30, 2018 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT

The Industrial Heating Equipment Association’s monthly economic executive summary reported very strong gains for both automotive and light truck sales as well as new home starts. Regarding new home starts, here is an extended quote for the 12-page monthly report available in full to IHEA members:

The news in the housing sector is very good right now and that is in the face of those headwinds that have been referenced all year. Thus far the consumer is shrugging out the higher price of homes as well as the bigger down payments and there has been buying at a variety of levels – from the starter home to the much more expensive “McMansion.” The fastest growing segment is still the multi-family home and there are still major shortages of this kind of abode. The recovery this month after a down period the month before is somewhat related to the weather, but not as much as would have been assumed this time of year. There is evidence that housing activity is surging in the jobs data as well – over 60,000 jobs added in construction this month. The majority of these are in the housing sector as there has not been a huge recovery in either commercial construction or in public sector activity.

The dozen indicators reported were split evenly between those that were up and those that were down. Significant is the fact that the PMI saw a slight dip but has been strong, in the mid-sixties, for quite some time, reaching a peak in December 2017 at 70.

Anyone interested in receiving a copy of the full report which includes statistics and analysis of the following indicators should contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA. You can email Anne by clicking here.

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2018 Off to Strong Start According to IHEA Executive Report

February 28, 2018 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

IHEA recently released its monthly Executive Economic Summary for January 2018.

The Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA, www.ihea.org) recently released its monthly Executive Economic Summary for the month of January, the first release of 2018. The report, available in-full for IHEA members, indicated that 2018 is off to a very strong start with all but three indices moving strongly upward. PMI and New Automobile/Light Truck Sales along with one other index moved slightly downward while nearly all others moved positively including Capacity Utilization and Capital Expenditures.

In addition to reporting on 12 or more indices important to the thermal processing industry, this monthly IHEA report offers insightful analysis of each indices’ impact on the industry. The report, funded and syndicated by IHEA, is available, in-full to IHEA members.

To receive a full copy of the report on a monthly basis, please contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA.

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IHEA Report Shows Industrial Capacity Utilization at Peak Levels

February 8, 2018 / FEATURED NEWS, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT NEWS

The monthly heat treat industry report released by the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA) showed year-high industrial capacity utilization coming in with a 77.1% figure, the highest number seen in recent history.

Industrial Capacity Utilization is at a 12-month high.

The report covers roughly a dozen other key indicators important to many in the heat treating industry. The January report also showed increases in auto production, new home starts, and a handful of other regularly-reported indices. There were some falling numbers: steel consumption and capital expenditures both dipped in December.

Other indices in the report include: metal prices (aluminum, copper, steel, nickel), the purchasing managers index, durable goods shipments, and factory orders to mention a few.

The report does not only report on indices, it also includes commentary from IHEA’s economic consultant who is keenly involved in the heat treating industry.

To receive these monthly reports, contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director at IHEA.

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IHEA Executive Economic Report