Industrial Heating Epuipment Association

What If We’re Wrong About CO2 & Global Warming?

Heat Treat Today publishes twelve print magazines a year, and included in each is a letter from the publisher, Doug Glenn. This letter first appeared in January 2025 Technologies To Watch print edition.

Feel free to contact Doug at doug@heattreattoday.com if you have a question or comment. 


I recently attended the Industrial Heating Equipment Association Decarbonization SUMMIT in Indianapolis at the Conrad Hotel. Roughly 100 thermal processing industry professionals participated in this two-day long event. As I listened to all presentations over those two days and going back even further to the planning of the event — which, by the way, I’d like to commend Jeff Rafter of Selas Heat Technology for his leadership, Mike Stowe of Advanced Energy for his technical contributions, and Goyer Management for their diligent work to produce this SUMMIT — I noticed that nearly everything being discussed was predicated on the assumption that global warming, and specifically man-induced global warming, is a real and settled science.

I’d like to challenge that assumption.

Firstly, legacy media, the federal government, academia, and the scientists who deliver the science we’re called to follow — i.e. “follow the science” — are all strong proponents of man-made global warming and the evil of CO2. This grouping of authorities, in and of itself, causes many to be suspicious, given this group’s historic record of dishonesty and deception. If this group has been so wrong in the past on macro-social economic issues (e.g., Covid) would it not be reasonable to question their claims about climate change?

Secondly, the science doesn’t seem to be as settled as claimed.

John F. Clauser, a Nobel laureate in Physics, has been articulate in his doubts about the climate crisis.

  • “The popular narrative about climate change reflects a dangerous corruption of science that threatens the world’s economy and the well being of billions of people.”
  • “I don’t believe there is a climate crisis. The world we live in today is filled with misinformation. It is up to each of you to serve as judges, distinguish truth from falsehood based on accurate observations of the phenomena.”
  • “Great news! There is no climate crisis! Much as it may upset many people, my message is that the planet is not in peril.”

Ivar Giaever, another Nobel laureate in Physics, has been clear in his skepticism about global warming.

  • “Global warming has become a new religion. We frequently hear about the number of scientists who support it. But the number is not important: only whether they are correct is important.”
  • “It is amazing how stable temperature has been over the last 150 years.”
  • “I am a skeptic. Global warming has become a new religion.”
  • “We don’t really know what the actual effect [of CO2] on the global temperature is. There are better ways to spend the money.”

Richard Lindzen, professor emeritus of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences at MIT, has been a vocal critic of the consensus on human-caused global warming.

Willie Soon, an astrophysicist, geoscientist, and aerospace engineer at Harvard’s Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, questions the extent of the human impact on climate change.

Frederick Seitz, former president of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, has expressed doubts about the severity of global warming.

Ian Plimer, an Australian geologist and professor emeritus at the University of Melbourne, is a prominent climate skeptic.

Peter Ridd, a former professor at James Cook University in Australia, has been a vocal critic of climate change science.

Jim Mason, PhD in Experimental Nuclear Physics from McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, recently published an excellent article in The Epoch Times entitled, “A Physicist’s View of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Impact on Climate,” which seriously calls into question whether or not the concentration of CO2 gas in our atmosphere has the physical ability to produce global warming. Mason quotes the work done by two other physicists, William A. Van Wijngaarden and William Happer. Mason says, “The duo postulate that long-wavelength radiation (LWR) absorption does not increase in a linear fashion as CO2 increases but does so in an exponentially DECREASING fashion. Additional amounts of CO2 added to the [atmosphere] absorb ever-decreasing amounts of additional LWR, until at some point the CO2 is absorbing effectively all of the LWR in the [atmosphere] that CO2 can absorb. Absorption is saturated” (emphasis is mine).

The implication is that adding more CO2 to the atmosphere may have essentially no impact on global temperatures if CO2 is absorbing all that it can absorb. I highly recommend Mr. Mason’s article.

Given the above, I have a few questions:

  • What if we are wrong about decarbonization and these gentlemen are right?
  • Is there any wisdom in approaching this topic with a bit more caution?
  • Do any of you have doubts about the need to decarbonize, and if so, how do you reconcile those doubts with continued efforts to decarbonize and/or take Department of Energy grants and subsidies?
  • Is anyone concerned about the amount of money that we are throwing at this potentially non-problem and the enormous and devastating impact on our children’s financial future?
Doug Glenn
Publisher
Heat Treat Today

Contact Doug Glenn at doug@heattreattoday.com.


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IHEA Monthly Economic Report: Dark Economic Clouds Cautiously Giving Way to Bright Recovery

“It is not that there is no longer anything to be concerned about as far as the economy is concerned, but the constant worries about whether the impact of the recession would fade seems to be ending. . . . The aggressive recovery predictions that were dismissed a month or so ago are now seen as the most likely.” This optimistic introduction leads February’s Industrial Heating Equipment Association’s (IHEA) Executive Economic Summary.

There are three factors that account for this enthusiasm, the summary reports. The first is the acceleration of vaccine distribution. “The US is now ranked number five in the world in terms of numbers vaccinated (behind only a few Asian states like Japan and Taiwan).” This has helped to reduce pandemic protocols. The second factor is that consumers have money and are willing to spend it. The summary states, “There is an estimated $6 trillion on the sidelines between consumers, investors and the business community. The consumer alone sits on over $2 trillion.” And finally, the third factor is tied to the money that will be infused into the economy by the $1.9 trillion stimulus/rescue plan.

The measurement of capacity utilization is a key indicator for future activity. It basically measures how efficiently a manufacturer is operating – do they have slack capacity in terms of either the machinery or their workforce? At the moment, the capacity numbers are a very long way from provoking inflation.

But, there’s that “what if,” hanging out there. The report cautions, “There is always a caveat when talking economics and that stimulus money is behind some of the trepidation regarding the future of the economic growth pattern. The risk from the stimulus is that it will overheat the economy and trigger a serious burst of inflation. If that surge in prices is dramatic enough, it could provoke the Fed to hike rates and start to put a damper on the growth we are starting to see.”

There are three prime motivators for inflation. The first one, wage inflation, hasn’t been an issue since there are still millions of people out of work. The second motivator, which has been manifesting dramatically is the price of commodities. They have been rising quickly–think oil and lumber prices. The third motivator is the money supply issue which could potentially lead to much angst. “The US economy is about to get hit with nearly $2 trillion just when there is substantial growth underway. This has the potential to set off a cycle of money chasing money. There will be a substantial part of the consumer population that will see some of this money and will be eager to spend it. If there is too much demand and not enough supply the price of things will go up.”

In conclusion, it will be interesting to see the response from the Fed–currently, there doesn’t seem to be a desire to hike rates– as well as the spending of the consumer. Will they continue to spend on services or for long-desired products? Hopefully, there are economic sunny days ahead.

The purchasing managers’ index is fairly volatile at the moment, but the good news is that the numbers have been consistently in the 60s for the last several months and anything over 50 is considered expansionary.

Check out the full report to see specific index growth and analysis which is available to IHEA member companies. For membership information, and a full copy of  the 12-page report, contact Anne Goyer, executive director of the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA). Email Anne by clicking here.

Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA
Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA

 

 

 

IHEA Monthly Economic Report: Dark Economic Clouds Cautiously Giving Way to Bright Recovery Read More »

IHEA’s Monthly Report: The US Economy Hits the Ground Running into 2020

“Optimism” may be a good description to highlight January’s Industrial Heating Equipment Association’s (IHEA) Executive Economic Summary. It states, “The US economy has started the year in better shape than had been expected. Now the attention of the economist has been focused on two questions. The first, why the headwinds that were expected to slow things down haven’t? And the second, how long can this situation be expected to last? Despite the predictions that consumers would become weary and businesses would begin layoffs at the start of 2020, “… some of the pressure was released with the ‘phase one’ deal with China and the consumer just seemed to power through their concerns.”

New home starts experienced an unexpected and encouraging rebound

The summary reports, “In looking at the index readings this month, the news is pretty good. Of the eleven, there are seven that are trending positive and four that are pointing in a more negative direction. The more important note is that the good news readings are very strong and the negative readings are not so dramatic.”

Of the seven positives indices, new housing starts experienced a dramatic rebound, and the housing sector is as strong as it has been in some time. Additionally, the reports states, “There was also some significant gain in terms of steel consumption. The automotive sector and the energy sector have helped boost demand.”

 

Significant growth in new orders after 5 consecutive months in decline

One other significant area of growth to note is the PMI, “There was a very impressive rebound as far as the Purchasing Managers’ Index was concerned. The overall index jumped back into expansion territory with a reading of 50.9 but an even bigger leap was noted in the New Orders index as it went from 46.8 to 52.0. Given the future orientation of the new orders data, this is good news indeed.” Other indices showing a positive growth were capital expenditures, durable goods, factory orders, and the credit manager’s index.

Those indices that weren’t as upward trending, but not “all that depressing” were new automobile/light truck sales, falling metal commodities prices due to lack of demand, and capacity utilization. The transportation index seems to be more of a concern, “The slip has been mostly in the rail and maritime sectors thus far as both have been affected by the trade wars and other interruptions in the global economy. The bottom line is that the bad news data has not been all that serious and most are likely to see some improvement in the future if the good news data keeps coming in.”

In conclusion, the news is better than expected this month with much growth. However, we can’t ignore the coronavirus and that its effect on the global economy has yet to play out completely.

 

The report is available to IHEA member companies. For membership information and a full copy of  the 12-page report, contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA). Email Anne by clicking here.

Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA
Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA

IHEA’s Monthly Report: The US Economy Hits the Ground Running into 2020 Read More »

IHEA’s Monthly Report: Index Readings “Only Slightly Down”, Still Good Signs for Months Ahead

PMI turned upward in October.
New orders turned upwards following several months of downward motion.

What impact does the coming political election have on the 2020 economy? As this month’s IHEA Executive Economic Summary reports, “Election years tend to depress consumers, business people and investors alike. The two parties try to outdo one another with tales of gloom and doom unless you vote for them and the sense is that the world is teetering on the brink.”

That being said, the report also encourages optimism when it states, “It should be noted that many of the index readings that turned negative are only slightly down and many are still higher than they have been much of the year.”

Metal prices, new orders and recorded in the PMI, capital expenditures, and the transportation index all trended upward in October. According to the report, the fact that the PMI has started to trend upward, even though it is still below 50, is a good sign for the months ahead.

Regarding capital expenditures, the report states, “The capital expenditures numbers are better than expected given the data on capacity utilization, but it seems there is still a demand for replacement equipment even if there is less demand for new equipment to support growth.”

Industrial capacity utilization contined to slide in October.
Industrial capacity utilization continued to slide in October adding to worries about a potential recession.

With regard to the seven downward trending indices, the report states that “they are not all that bad.” Indices in this group include new automobile and light truck sales, new home starts, steel consumption, and industrial capacity utilization to name a few.

Concluding the report is the following statement, “These have not been massive drops and there is no sense of an impending crisis, but this kind of weakness doesn’t leave much wiggle room should there be a real recessionary trend. The overall sense of trepidation in the industrial sector is driving most of the current level of angst.”

Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA
Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA

For a full copy of the 12-page report, contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA). Email Anne by clicking here.

 

IHEA’s Monthly Report: Index Readings “Only Slightly Down”, Still Good Signs for Months Ahead Read More »