HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Today publishes twelve print magazines annually and included in each is a letter from the publisher, Doug Glenn. This letter is from the September 2025 Annual People of Heat Treat print edition.

Feel free to contact Doug at doug@heattreattoday.com if you have a question or comment. 

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Knowing whether the North American thermal processing economy is up or down compared to last month or last year is a question that many want to know. And, as you may already know, there are essentially ZERO industry-specific economic indicators measuring our market. Except for one — Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators, or the heat treat economic indicators (HTEI).

A Little History

A little history and then let’s discuss Heat Treat Today’s HTEI. Back in the mid-1990s or early 2000s, I and the team at Industrial Heating established the first industry-specific economic indicators. Those indices survived for roughly 20 years before passing into oblivion when Industrial Heating shut their doors in 2023.

The data for the indicators were not saved…to the best of my knowledge. During those 20 years, many, many companies in the thermal processing industry relied on the data from those indices to help plan their business. I recall specifically speaking to one of the top-level guys at Bodycote who confessed that they used the economic indicators together with some other macro-economic data to help with their annual strategic planning. There were many others as well who either called or emailed asking questions about the indicators or asking for permission to use them in reports.

After Industrial Heating shuttered the indices, Heat Treat Today picked them up and has been collecting and reporting industry-specific economic data since that time.

The 4 Indices

There are four indices. All four are forward looking and none require a company to report any numbers back to us. Here’s how they work.

On the first business day of each month, Heat Treat Today sends an email survey to over 800 supplier contacts in the North American heat treat market. Recipients are asked four simple opinion questions. All four questions ask essentially the same thing: Do you think the next 30 days will be better or worse or the same as the past 30 days? We ask this question for four specific areas:

1. The number and/or value of inquiries
2. The number and/or value of bookings
3. The size of the company’s backlog
4. The general health of the manufacturing economy

Respondents pick a number between −10 and +10 for each of the four questions with −10 being much, much worse and +10 being much, much better. Respondents can also skip one or more questions if they have no opinion or do not want to share.

The responses are aggregated and converted into an index very similar to the Purchasing Managers Index where the index number 50 represents no change, numbers above 50 represent growth, and numbers below 50 represent contraction.

More Responses Are Better

As with any statistical analysis, the larger the sample set, the more reliable the data. This is true for HTEI as well. With over 800 solicitations going out each month, we’re getting a pretty decent response, but more responses would be better. Responding to the survey takes less than two minutes, so time is not really an issue. No numbers need to be compiled or calculated to respond, which keeps it simple. The questions are all “opinion” questions about whether you anticipate the next 30 days will be better than the past 30 days.

We would love to have you join the ranks of people that respond regularly to the HTEI monthly emails. If you would like to receive the monthly survey on the first business day of each month, please send your email address to me and I’ll add you to the list. You can email me at doug@heattreattoday.com.

Thanks for participating. 

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