IHEA’s Economic Summary Reports “Steady as She Goes”

November 8, 2019 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

New Auto/Light Truck Sales continue to rise

Despite predictions that trade wars, oil prices, and cautious business decisions would slow economic growth, the economic readings, reported monthly by the Industrial Heating Equipment Association’s Executive Economic Summary, “show some of that caution, but many had expected a drastic reduction in activity by this point, and that has not emerged.”

Trending upward were nine areas including those with a small bump from the sales of new automobiles and light trucks. This steady rise has been reflected throughout the year, from last December’s high at 1,749 million to this month’s 1,718 million.

Over the past several months there has been a marked improvement in metal price data. The PMI New Orders that had been on a sharp decline over the past months have leveled off and are similar to last month’s reading.

Metals Pricing shows distinct improvement over last several months

The biggest jump was reflected in the new home starts with multi-family and high-end sectors driving the market; additionally, there was a bump in commercial building. Steel consumption also saw a rise due to the demand of vehicle manufacturers.

According to IHEA’s economist, if there is an overall conclusion it’s that most of the dire predictions concerning the economy have not come to fruition, however, there remains considerable unease. “The variables have been hard to determine–much less predictable.”

Ann Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA — Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA

The 12-page monthly report is comprised of an introductory summary page, and then one page each to analyze in detail eleven indices chosen specifically for their impact on the thermal processing market.

To receive a full copy of this report, contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA

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Heat Treat Economy Trending Positive, IHEA Reports

July 31, 2019 / HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Seven of the eleven economic indicators reported monthly by the Industrial Heating Equipment Association’s Executive Economic Summary trended upward while only four softened. Overall industry growth continues to be solid with only a few signs of slowing.

Among the upward movers are vehicle sales, new home starts, steel consumption, capacity utilization, and durable goods orders. These five and two others lead the way with positive growth albeit small movements upward.

The four indices that slumped were PMI, transportation, metal prices, and factory orders.

According to IHEA’s economist, the economy continues to be strong even though many had assumed there would be a more significant softening by this time. Although the southward moving indices are worrisome, the number and persistence of the positive indices lend confidence that the heat treat economy will continue strong in the months ahead.

The full report from IHEA is 12 pages in length and available to IHEA member companies. To see the full report, contact Anne Goyer at IHEA for details on membership in IHEA. Anne Goyer can be reached by email by clicking here. More information about IHEA can be found on the web at www.ihea.org.

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IHEA Economic Report Released With Split Indicators

June 28, 2019 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

The Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA) released its 12-page monthly Executive Economic Summary which contains an analysis of 11 key heat treat industry economic indicators. The organization has been providing this monthly report as a service to its members for several years, and it is a valuable source of economic data and analysis for companies supplying equipment, components, or consumables to the heat treating industry.

This month’s report was nearly evenly split between the eleven indices, with five moving upward and six moving downward.

According to IHEA economist, Chris Kuehl of the Armada Corporate Intelligence, the underlying concerns about tariffs and trade wars seems to be the primary inhibitor of greater economic growth. While nearly all of the indices are in the “growth” range of their curves, more of them are getting closer to the “contraction” range and could easily slip into contraction with additional dampening economic news.

Three of the five gainers were housing starts, capital investment, and PMI new orders, each showing modest gains.

Among the sliders, new automobile and light truck sales, steel consumption, and capacity utilization.

Generally, downward movements were stronger than upward movements this month, contributing to longer-term concern about a possible slow down in the economy.

To receive a copy of the full, 12-page report, contact Anne Goyer, executive director of IHEA by clicking here.

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Heat Treat Economy Continues Strong per IHEA Executive Economic Summary

May 31, 2019 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

The monthly economic report from the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA) showed continued signs of optimism for the heat treat economy. This month, like last month, the 11 indices reported on by the organization were mixed; five were up and six were modestly down.

Capital expenditures were up significantly in April.

Among those headed north were a triumvirate of manufacturing indices: capital expenditures, durable goods shipments, and factory orders. Industrial capacity utilization was slightly off but still higher than it was one year ago.

Other strong indices were home starts and steel consumption.

On the down side of the equation, new orders (PMI) dipped significantly as did the Credit Manager’s Index. The transportation index also dipped slightly.

In the full, twelve-page report, IHEA Economist, Chris Kuehl, goes into depth on each of the eleven indices explaining their potential impact on the heat treat industry and the causes for their upward or downward motion.

IHEA member companies receive the report free of charge each month as a benefit of membership.

The PMI, which measures new order activity, saw a significant dip in April.

To view the latest IHEA Executive Economic Summary, contact IHEA Executive Director, Anne Goyer by clicking here.

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Heat Treat Economy Continues Strong Per IHEA Monthly Report

April 29, 2019 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Of the eleven economic indices reported on monthly by the Industrial Heating Equipment Association for the benefit of its member companies, four of the indices showed upward growth while only a few dropped significantly. All others remained relatively unchanged.

The four upward trending indices included PMI New Orders, Automobile and Light Truck Sales, Metal Prices, and the Credit Managers Index. The IHEA report, supplied monthly to IHEA member companies, goes into detail on the significance of these upward movements dedicating one full page of the report to each of eleven indices.

Indices not faring so well included Capital Expenditures, Durable Goods Orders, Factory Orders, and Home Starts. Most of the non-positive moving indices saw only slight decreases.

For a full copy of the report, contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of the IHEA by clicking here.

IHEA Annual Meeting Kicks Off in Florida

Leaders from the heat treating and thermal processing industry are meeting this week at Lido Beach Resort in Florida, USA. This three-day industry meeting, organized by IHEA, attracts leaders from heat treat furnace manufacturers, heat treat component suppliers, and providers of heat treating supplies and consumables. This year’s meeting features discussions on heat treating and cybersecurity, an update on the impact of Washington’s policies on the heat treating industry, as well as an in-depth look at the above mentioned economic indices from IHEA’s economist.

Registration Open for NFPA 86 Update Seminar

IHEA Lido Beach Resort Spring Meeting April 2019

IHEA’s next educational event will be an NFPA 86 Update Seminar being held on May 14th from 9:00-3:00 at the Fabricators & Manufacturers Association in Elgin, Illinois. For more information, contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA by clicking here.

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Where’s the Heat Treat Economy Headed: Up, Down, Flat?

March 29, 2019 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Finding the right metric to measure the ubiquitous heat treat economy is like trying to take the temperature of the ocean. It can be hot in some spots, cold in others, and an average temperature really doesn’t help anyone. Finding economic data that can help suppliers to the heat treat industry plan future business fluctuations is all but impossible. Industrial Heating magazine has been publishing its Economic Indicators for well over a decade. This is one of the best sources for heat treat-specific economic data freely available to the public. Click here for the latest numbers from Industrial Heating.

The Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA) provides a monthly Executive Economic Summary to their members as well. According to the most recent report from IHEA, the signals are mixed as to where the heat treat economy is headed. Below are a few highlights. To access the full report, please contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA by clicking here.

Factory Orders — headed up.
Durable Goods — headed up.
Transportation Index — headed up.
Steel Consumption — headed up.

All of the above indices are headed north, but exactly what impact does each have on the heat treat industry?

Industrial Capacity Utilization — headed down.
Metal Prices — softening.
Purchasing Managers Index — down.
Capital Expenditures — down.

Likewise, these four indices headed south but their impact on the heat treat industry is not easily discernible.

A more complete understanding of the direct impact of the above eight (8) indices plus three (3) others on the heat treat industry can be gained by the analysis provided in the IHEA Executive Economic Summary report. The monthly report dedicates one page to each of eleven (11) heat treat-related indices with in-depth analysis by IHEA’s contracted economist.

In my eyes, the data and analysis provided by IHEA is one of the most valuable pieces of economic heat treat data a heat treat industry supplier can have.

Contact Anne Goyer for more information on this report.

Where’s the Heat Treat Economy Headed: Up, Down, Flat? Read More »

Heat Treat Economic Report Continues Strong

February 28, 2019 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Nine of eleven economic indicators from the monthly Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA) were up in January. That miffed some who thought the industry was starting to soften. In fact, it is not conclusive one way or the other, but January’s numbers showed strength and surprisingly strong upward movements from a vast majority of the indices.

Graph of Capital Expenditures — Capital Expenditures for January were up significantly

Graph of Durable Goods orders. — Durable Goods orders were strong in January

The numbers, which we will dive a bit deeper into below, are provided monthly to members of the IHEA along with a 12-page report that digs into each index and how movement in that index will specifically impact the thermal processing industry. Anyone interested in receiving the report should contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA, whose contact information is given at the end of this post.

Which indices were up? As mentioned earlier, nearly all of them.

New Home Starts took a significant jump.
Steel Consumption was up significantly.
Industrial Capacity Utilization was also up from the previous month.
Metal prices (aluminum, gold, nickel, copper) were also up.
The PMI was up significantly.
Capital Expenditures took a huge jump upward.
Durable Goods saw modest growth.
Factory orders rebounded from a previous month’s dip.
Transportation Index experienced a nice rebound after falling for several months.

The only two indices that did not improve were:

New Automobile and Light Truck Sales were essentially flat falling only slightly.
Credit Movement was significantly down

According to the IHEA report, this downward movement in the credit index causes one to pause and question whether 2019 will be as robust as 2018.

Further analysis of each of these 11 indices can be obtained from Anne Goyer, Executive Director at IHEA, who can be reached at anne@goyermgt.com.

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Heat Treat Prospects: Short Term, Good; Long-Term, Questionable

January 31, 2019 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

The final 2018 monthly economic report from the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA) was released earlier this month and reveals five indices trending upward and six trending downward. According to IHEA’s economist, the six trending downward are more long-term-looking while the five upward trending indices are more short-term-looking. The report suggests that it would be safe to conclude that the economy is softening and may start to slow in growth before the end of 2019.

Three of the biggest dippers were the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which “. . . crashed hard this month,” according to the report, the Credit Managers Index, and the Transportation Index. The full report offers a more complete analysis of these three indices.

Moving in a positive direction were new home starts, capacity utilization, capital expenditures, durable goods, and factory orders.

Each of the eleven indices receives a full page analysis as well as commentary on how the changes in that index may affect the thermal processing/heat treating industry.

To receive a complete copy of this month’s report, contact IHEA Executive Director, Anne Goyer, by email.

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IHEA Report Suggests Continued Growth in 2019 Even with Severe Political Divide

December 20, 2018 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

The monthly Executive Economic Summary published by the Industrial Heating Equipment Association showed slowing growth in November. Nonetheless, the report suggests that the economy will continue to grow steadily in 2019 despite a moderation of growth rates.

Here are a few highlights from the report which is made available in its entirety to IHEA members each month:

Indexes moving up included:

Car and light truck sales have increased slightly. This index was expected to drop significantly earlier this year and never did.
Housing starts continued to grow but more slowly than in previous months.
Steel consumption continues to be strong.
Metal prices also remain steady or increasing.
Capital investment — up.
Credit index — also up.

Those indices that retreated include:

Capacity utilization. Still slightly below 80 which is where economists like to see it. Nonetheless, this number is still quite high compared to recent months.
Purchasing managers index also slipped but continues to show significant growth.
Durable goods orders — down
Factory goods orders — down
Transportation index — down

Although a number of indexes were down, almost all continue to show growth or slight levels of economic contraction.

The 12-page report dives deeply into the above 11 indexes dedicating a complete page to each index.

The complete report is available to IHEA member companies. To obtain a copy of the report, please contact Anne Goyer, Executive Vice President of the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (www.ihea.org). You can email Anne by clicking here.

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9 of 11 Indices Up in IHEA Economic Report

October 31, 2018 / FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

According to IHEA’s monthly economic report to member companies, nine of the eleven indices are up and the only two that are not up are still quite strong. To get the weak indices out of the way, here they are: Purchasing Managers Index (which is still quite high), and the Transportation Activity Index (which also is quite high). Both showed slippage in September, but neither is a focus of worry.

PMI for September showed slight reductions, but is still strong overall.

Transportation Activity Index was slightly off for September, but still quite strong.

On the lead page of the report, the following summary paragraph appears:

The nine categories that ended up in positive territory include “new automobile/light truck sales” and this reflects the fact that consumers are still quite confident about their job security and have no issue with taking on debt to buy a new car or truck. The “new home sales” category is healthy, although it is important to note that there is a deepening division between the cities that are seeing growth between 20% and 40% and the those that are shrinking. It has all come down to which cities are generating jobs. The existing home market has not been quite as lively as the new home sector and it is much the larger of the two. The “steel consumption” category is still reflecting the desire on the part of steel consumers to hoard cheaper steel, but there has also been evidence of returning steel demand in everything from vehicles to pipelines to construction activity. The “metal prices” readings are all going up and that has been anticipated for some time. The only one that hasn’t is gold and that would suggest that fewer people are seeking shelter from inflation in this metal. The other industrial metals are all going up in response to increased demand.

The 12-page report goes on to offer in-depth analysis of all 11 indices and what impact each might have on the thermal processing industry. The full report is available for review from the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (www.ihea.org) and is an exclusive benefit of membership in the organization. If you’re interested in seeing a copy of the report, contact Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA at Anne@GoyerMgt.com.

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Anne Goyer