Wingens Consultants

Industry experts agree: 2025 is a year of significant, high-tech developments. In this Technical Tuesday, hear from three heat treat industry consultants on current and incoming technological advances, from miniaturization and customization to artificial intelligence.

Michael Mouilleseaux, general manager at Erie Steel, Ltd, opens the discussion by asking what role AI has in a perfect world of heat treating; Thomas Wingens, president of Wingens Consultants, predicts six major technologies to look for in 2025; and Dan Herring, a.k.a. The Heat Treat Doctor® and owner of The HERRING GROUP, Inc., points out how the trend toward smaller is affecting the heat treat industry.

This informative piece was first released in Heat Treat Today’s January 2025 Technologies To Watch in Heat Treating print edition.

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AI’s Place in Heat Treating?

by Michael Mouilleseaux

The benefits of AI are purported to be the ability to reduce the time required to complete complex tasks, such as data analysis, while reducing human error and providing both unbiased decision making and data-driven system enhancements … and by the way, it can operate 24/7 without breaks!

Does AI have a place in heat treating?

Here’s what I would want my heat treat AI (HT AI) to be able to do with a gas-fired atmosphere furnace.

Combustion System:

• My HT AI will continuously monitor the free oxygen of all the burners and keep them at a perfect ratio, thereby optimizing performance and gas consumption. It will track these changes and provide analysis of any trends that it “perceives,” so to speak.
• My HT AI will continuously monitor combustion air pressure and message me in time to have the air filters changed before it affects performance. It will track this and provide historical and prescriptive information.
• My HT AI will periodically perform a “tube check,” whereby it will shut off combustion in a tube and monitor the free oxygen, recognizing that any diminishment from “atmospheric” O2 levels indicate the potential of a tube leak. It will track this and provide analysis of any trends that it perceives.
• My HT AI will track when system thermal stasis is achieved, monitor gas consumption for each discrete heat treat cycle, provide analysis of trends that it perceives, and recommend thermal cycle changes to optimize these cycles.

My HT AI will facilitate the optimization of the critical human assets in process engineering, product quality and equipment maintenance.”

Michael Mouilleseaux

Atmosphere Control System:

• My HT AI will continuously monitor the atmosphere flows required to achieve the requirements for each heat treat cycle. It will track “atmosphere recovery” and provide analysis of any trends that it perceives (i.e., increased usage as a precursor to a furnace leak).
• My HT AI will periodically perform a furnace check, whereby it compares the composition of the Endo gas in the furnace to that exiting the generator, providing a measure of furnace integrity. It will track this and provide analysis of any trends that it perceives.
• My HT AI will confirm “tube check” data (see above) with atmosphere usage to evaluate its potential effects on process integrity and make actionable recommendations. It will track these incidents and provide analysis of any trends that it perceives.
• My HT AI will provide assurance of system performance and actionable information.

Shoot for the Moon:

• My HT AI will have the unique ability to integrate metallurgical results with process information and thereby provide the ability to optimize the heat treating process AND metallurgical results.
• My HT AI will allow me to input material chemical and hardenability data and, by comparing actual results with the calculated, or prospective results, provide confirmation of the thermal and quenching segments of the process.
• My HT AI will be able to correlate IGO results with furnace integrity checks (i.e., leaks) and over time establish hard limits for allowable leak rates.
• My HT AI will be able to correlate actual retained austenite levels in carburized case with furnace carbon potential and make data-driven process modifications to optimize this.
• My HT AI will be able to correlate the shape of the case depth curve with the carburizing cycle and the material type, and it will make data-driven process modifications to optimize this.
• My HT AI will have the ability to develop new heat treat thermal cycles specific to my furnaces extrapolated from existing data.

My HT AI will provide a level of system performance heretofore not achieved, that not only assures adherence to established standards but provides a clear path of continuous improvement via data analysis and actionable actions. Product results will be validated by total process control, and total process control will assure attainment of product results.

My HT AI will facilitate the optimization of the critical human assets in process engineering, product quality and equipment maintenance.

In short, my HT AI will afford the heat treating community the ability to finally jettison the mantle of “black art” and join the community of high-tech engineered processes.

About the Author:

Michael Mouilleseaux has been at Erie Steel in Toledo, OH, since 2006 with previous metallurgical experience at New Process Gear in Syracuse, NY, and as the director of Technology in Marketing at FPM Heat Treating LLC in Elk Grove, IL. Having graduated from the University of Michigan with a degree in Metallurgical Engineering, Michael has proved his expertise in the field of heat treat, co-presenting at the 2019 Heat Treat show and currently serving on the Board of Trustees at the Metal Treating Institute.

For more information: Contact Michael at mmouilleseaux@erie.com.

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Future Outlook for 2025

by Thomas Wingens

2025 will be the year of invention and application. There are six major technologies to be looking out for: AI management software, giga casting for the EV industry, high-pressure quench furnaces, thermal processing specialty materials, processing for steel enrichment, and practices for cleaning consistency.

AI Management Software

Some new heat treat shop management software is now available. It utilizes artificial intelligence to save labor while documenting all processes in real time. The software easily adapts to the way we work and is much easier to learn and implement than the software of the past. I see this as the number one investment item for commercial heat treaters in 2025, as it is the cheapest and easiest way to automate with a great ROI while increasing quality and customer service.

Giga Casting

With Tesla as the main driver, very large so-called “GIGA” H13 aluminum dies of 3 to 8-ton weight have really taken off in the last years, in particular for new electric car models, and the demand for very high pressure quench furnaces is increasing in the U.S. (more to come in a later article).

Vacuum Oil Quenching

However, even with the most advanced designs and high-pressure efforts, gas quenching with nitrogen has its limits, and the use of helium is not considered anymore because of its immense cost, even with a recycling system in place. Vacuum oil quenching has become a viable alternative in recent years not only in combination with LPC (low-pressure carburizing) but also with the use of materials like AISI 52100 that would be typically heat treated in atmosphere integral quench furnaces but show lesser distortion with the variation of pressures over the oil bath, which can shift the oil boiling phase peak to lower temperatures (e.g., from 650°C (1200°F) at atmospheric pressure to 400°C (750°F) at 1 mbar pressure). Some new modern vacuum oil quench furnace designs have recently entered the market, showing excellent surface cleanliness and distortion results. Aside from the better quality, they offer a much safer, cleaner and more pleasant work environment.

Specialty Materials

In general, we see a higher demand for the thermal processing of specialty materials; for example this is seen with the hydrogen decrepitation of titanium, tantalum, niobium, or rare earth element materials, powder processing or sinter processes, and surface diffusion processes.

Steel Enrichment

Enriching stainless steel with nitrogen is not new, but it is gaining momentum and more applications. One method for\ low-temperature processes on austenitic stainless steels around 370°C (690°F) is called S-phase case hardening, and the high temperature version around 1100°C (2010°F) is called solution nitriding. Both processes were initially established in the early 90s in Europe but seem to be gaining momentum and more comprehensive applications worldwide over the last years.

Cleaning Consistency

Speaking of surface processes: The cleaning of components has been a thankless process, especially in commercial heat treatment, as it is seen as a necessity that is not necessarily paid for by the clients but is necessary to have uniform dissociation on the surface of a part to ensure a uniform case (e.g., nitriding case). There are well-defined standards for temperature uniformity and hardness testing, but cleaning consistency needs to be addressed, as it can be very impactful. We see more fully enclosed vacuum solvent cleaning in heat treat shops to ensure a higher standard and consistency of the surface cleaning results compared to the fading of water cleaners.

About the Author:

Thomas Wingens has been an independent consultant to the heat treat industry for nearly 15 years and has been involved in the heat treat industry for over 35 years. Throughout his career, he has held various positions, including business developer, management, and executive roles for companies in Europe and the United States, including Bodycote, Ipsen, SECO/WARWICK, Tenova, and IHI-Group.

For more information: Contact Thomas at www.wingens.com.

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Miniaturization and the Heat Treat Industry

by Dan Herring

Everywhere we turn today, the products we use are getting smaller, more compact and more powerful. This is true across all industries, from aerospace to automotive, from medical to electronics, and from energy to semiconductors to name a few. Today, miniaturization, portability and customization have become major design objectives for almost all manufacturing segments.

These trends are irreversible and are, or will be, found even in the most unlikely of places — both in mining of resources taking place deep under the ocean floor and eventually on other planets. The key question then becomes, how will all of this influence our heat treating operations?

Miniaturization, Portability and Customization Today

Given the ever-increasing demand for higher performance in a smaller footprint, we have often focused our energies on taking existing products and adapting them for use. But in the long term, this is not sustainable. For example, not only is gear noise reduction critical in our submarines, but the medical and robotics markets are continuously searching for smaller, more efficient, more application specific and more intelligent drive systems and motors with increased torque density.

Heat treatment will experience a metamorphosis and emerge more broadly as thermal treatment. The age of metals as we have known it has become the age of materials: ceramics, composites, powder materials, glasses, polymers, fiber-reinforced plastics, and even nanomaterials.

Dan Herring, The Heat Treat Doctor®

Another example, although not new, is miniaturization in vehicle electronics, especially as it relates to data collection where demand is high for smaller, more powerful and, yes, cheaper components. Integration into the electronic control units via on-board power systems has seen the need for more cables in vehicles and positioning connectors, which means more contacts/connections on the electronic components without significantly increasing the installation space.

Similarly, there is a huge demand for portability. This is true not only in our electronics (just think about how cell phones or computers have changed over the last ten years), but there is a growing need for portable medical devices so that medical care can be brought to the patient rather than the other way around. For example, longer battery life and lighter weight are critical for devices such as portable oxygen concentrators.

What Does This Mean for the Heat Treatment Industry?

Looking ahead, we will see both short and long-term changes to our industry. Happening today and continuing in the near term, heat treaters are working closer than ever with design and manufacturing engineers as they focus on products that reduce environmental impact, are produced at lower unit cost, and with improved part quality. Still, the era of mass recalls must come to an end. And the cost of heat treating is less than it was even a decade ago. But as manufacturing demand evolves due to consumer expectation, process and equipment flexibility will become keys to meeting the highest quality standards in an on-demand world.

Historically, changes in the heat treat industry has been evolutionary and incremental in both nature and effect. There have been notable exceptions such as the invention of the oxygen probe or low pressure vacuum carburizing. But to meet the manufacturing demands of the future, change will need to be more revolutionary and abrupt in nature, a game changer.

Given the ever-increasing demand for higher performance in a smaller footprint, we have often focused our energies on taking existing products and adapting them for use. But in the long term, this is not sustainable. For example, not only is gear noise reduction critical in our submarines, but the medical and robotics markets are continuously searching for smaller, more efficient, more application specific and more-intelligent drive systems and motors with increased torque density.

Dan Herring,
The HERRING GROUP, Inc.

Heat treatment will experience a metamorphosis and emerge more broadly as thermal treatment. The age of metals as we have known it has become the age of materials: ceramics, composites, powder materials, glasses, polymers, fiber-reinforced plastics, and even nanomaterials. As a result, we will find ourselves needing, for example, to expand our heat treat capability and equipment to deal with such items as process temperature ranges from -200°C to 1850°C (-330°F to 3360°F) or greater or at pressure/vacuum levels heretofore only achievable in laboratories or specialty applications.

As product sizes decrease, load sizes will become smaller out of necessity. And as a result, our heat treat equipment must be small lot capable with tighter controls to achieve higher quality along with tremendous process flexibility.

Final Thoughts

History’s enduring legacy is that change is inevitable. Just think back to how the heat treatment industry has evolved, from the campfire to the blacksmith to the modern heat treater, from the artisan to the era of mass production, from the art of heat treating to the science of heat treatment. The lesson is that to adapt, one must constantly innovate and invent. Miniaturization, portability and customization in whatever form they take are here to stay. Perhaps even teleportation (the ultimate miniaturization?) isn’t that far off after all, considering flight was unheard of a little over a century ago.

About the Author:

Dan Herring has been in the industry for over 50 years and has gained vast experience in fields that include materials science, engineering, metallurgy, new product research, and many other areas. He is the author of six books and over 700 technical articles.

For more information: Contact Dan at herring@heat-treat-doctor.com.

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