Karen Gantzer

Heat Treat Economic Indicators for April: A Mixed Bag

/ HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

Heat Treat Today has gathered the four heat treat industry-specific economic indicators for April 2025. While March showed a positive outlook, this month is indicating a change.

April’s industry-specific economic indicators continued to show growth in two of the four indices while two others have slipped into contraction. Both the Bookings and Backlog indices continue to show growth however at a significantly slower pace compared to March. The Bookings index fell from 58.8 in March to 52.0 this month and the Backlog index fell from 59.3 to 53.3. Any number above 50 indicates growth.

Slipping just below the index number of 50, indicating contraction, were both the Inquiries index and the Health of the Manufacturing Economy index. The former fell from a very strong 61.1 to 49.0, while the later dropped slightly from 50.0 to 47.2.

The graphs suggest that the North American thermal processing industry is experiencing a 4-month slowdown that started in roughly December 2024.

Please note that the above data was collected just prior to tariff announcements by the Trump White House. Next month’s data should show the effect of those tariffs.

The results from this month’s survey (April) are as follows; numbers above 50 indicate growth, numbers below 50 indicate contraction, and the number 50 indicates no change:

  • Anticipated change in Number of Inquiries from March to April: 49.0
  • Anticipated change in Value of Bookings from March to April: 52.0
  • Anticipated change in Size of Backlog from March to April: 53.3
  • Anticipated change in Health of the Manufacturing Economy from March to April: 47.2

Data for April 2025

The four index numbers are reported monthly by Heat Treat Today and made available on the website. 

Heat Treat Today’s Economic Indicators measure and report on four heat treat industry indices. Each month, approximately 800 individuals who classify themselves as suppliers to the North American heat treat industry receive the survey. Above are the results. Data started being collected in June 2023. If you would like to participate in the monthly survey, please click here to subscribe.

Find heat treating products and services when you search on Heat Treat Buyers Guide.Com

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Walk-In Batch Ovens Shipped To Energy Industry

/ ENERGY HEAT TREAT NEWS, Featured

A shipment of six (6) heavy-duty walk-in batch ovens was delivered to a manufacturer of products for the energy industry. These industrial ovens will be used for baking glue onto products.

Mark Schahczinski, Senior Sales Engineer, Wisconsin Oven Corporation

The batch ovens, from Wisconsin Oven Corporation, have a maximum operating temperature of 500°F and guaranteed temperature uniformity of ±5°F at 285°F. A combination airflow configuration ensures even heat distribution throughout the chambers to optimize heating rates and temperature uniformity. Nine (9) point profile tests were conducted in each empty chamber under static operating conditions to verify temperature uniformity. 

“We are proud to continue our partnership with this valued customer who has purchased multiple ovens from Wisconsin Oven over the years. Their trust in our products is a testament to our commitment to providing high quality equipment and building long term relationships with our customers,” said Mark Schahczinski, Senior Sales Engineer, Wisconsin Oven Corporation.

Press release is available in its original form here.

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Publisher’s Page: The DOE Is Coming After YOUR Job

/ HEAT TREAT NEWS, PUBLISHER'S PAGE

“When it comes to who should lose their jobs because of changing times, I’d much rather leave the decision up to the market and millions of individual decisions being made independently around the world . . .”

Heat Treat Today publishes eight print magazines a year and included in each is a letter from the publisher, Doug Glenn. This letter first appeared in the May 2024 Sustainable Heat Treat Technologies print edition.

Yes, the headline is intentionally provocative and even a bit of an exaggeration, unless you are employed in an industry that either makes or heavily uses combustion equipment. If that’s you, then the headline is NOT an exaggeration.

To prove that it is not, I’d like you to meet Mr. Isaac Chan, a DOE employee. Mr. Chan, whom I met in March of this year at an Industrial Heating Equipment Association Annual Spring Meeting is a genuinely nice person with no ill intent toward any living soul. He is also the program manager at the DOE’s Office of Industrial Efficiency and Decarbonization.

Let’s pause for just a moment before we talk more about Mr. Chan and acknowledge that the name of this DOE Office, “Industrial Efficiency and Decarbonization,” will be, in some specific cases, an oxymoron. In specific industries, given the best available technologies (BAT), mandated decarbonization would cause industrial inefficiency.

Back to Mr. Chan. As I’ve stated, he is a very nice person, but the job he and hundreds of others at the DOE are being paid to do with taxpayer dollars is explicitly targeted at changing the energy composition of U.S. industry with the undeniable effect of putting many, if not all, combustion processes in the ash heap of history along with all those employed therein.

On the fourth slide of a presentation entitled, “Cross Sector Technologies Meeting: Day 2, Next-Generation Enabling Technologies,” presented by Mr. Chan on May 30, 2023, we find the following:

  • DOE Commitment to Industrial Decarbonization (slide title)
  • “Industrial Heat Shot™ — Developing technologies to reduce process heating GHG emissions by 85% by 2035”
  • “Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap — Net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050”

The same slide goes on to list four international organizations that the U.S. has joined to “decarbonize” energy-intensive industries. Those four organizations are:

  • Net-Zero World Initiative
  • G7 Industrial Decarbonization Agenda
  • Mission Innovation’s Net-Zero Industries Mission
  • UNIDO’s coordinated Industrial Deep Decarbonization Initiative

Who Decides

The issue here is who decides if the world will decarbonize or not. I personally have no axe to grind on whether combustion people stay employed or not. Economies change. Energy sources change. People in those industries lose and gain jobs. And assuming these changes are the result of millions of decisions freely made by millions of individuals daily, we can safely consider these changes to be progress. But when a change from one fuel to another — gas to electricity or carbon to no carbon fuels in this case — is pushed from the top down, when it is forced on us by “guideline” or “mandate” using our own money, that is not progress.

The market should decide. A free, unfettered market where millions of people make decisions daily is a more reliable indicator of what the people want than the well-meaning individuals in the DOE — no disrespect to any of these good people.

When it comes to who should lose their jobs because of changing times, I’d much rather leave the decision up to the market and millions of individual decisions being made independently around the world, than to a small group of well-meaning individuals who believe they know what is best for the world.

Let’s let the market do what it does so well. Let the market choose the winners and losers.

Find Heat Treating Products And Services When You Search On Heat Treat Buyers Guide.Com

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Message from the Editor: Digitalization: An Ever-Expanding Frontier

/ EDITOR, EDITORS PICK, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT TECH

Heat Treat Today publishes eight print magazines a year, and included in each is a letter from the editor, Bethany Leone. This letter first appeared in the May 2023 Sustainable Heat Treat Technologies print edition.

Feel free to contact Bethany at bethany@heattreattoday.com if you have a question or comment.

In order to create a more sustainable future for heat treaters, operators may be looking to “digitalization” as an immediate step for their heat treat systems. Digitalization is an amorphous term that can describe a few things.

One definition of digitalization curated for the heat treat industry is: the integration of advanced digital technologies (like cloud technologies, 3D visualization, simulation, analytics and collaboration tools, and even robotics) with heat treat equipment and all other aspects of production (order fulfillment, certifications, communication systems, etc.) to create a “digital twin” — that is, a holistic virtual representation of heat treat operations. By transitioning analog data and manual operations to a digital system, the end goal of creating a “digital twin” of all heat treat operations can be actualized, allowing heat treaters to monitor and analyze in real-time and create simulations and predictions about equipment performance.

This term tends to be broader than just “digitization” — the act of digitizing analog technologies to digital form — though the two terms are often used interchangeably.

An interest in digitalization makes a lot of sense. For one, updating manufacturing plants with digital practices is a huge draw for young people: “People want to work for a technologically advanced company that they can feel good about,” according to Josh Hale, managing recruiter at International Search Partners, when he spoke on Heat Treat Radio . Additionally, Covid-19 labor constraints accelerated adoption of IIoT (industrial internet of things) technologies — digitalization being just one of many. But there are also several intrinsic promises that digitalization has to offer manufacturers, for example:

  1. Efficiency: creating efficient operations that streamline business processes
  2. Accuracy: increasing accuracy by achieving precise control over temperature, atmosphere, and other process parameters
  3. Data and Analytics: real-time monitoring/data collection and rapid data analysis
  4. Safety: reduced need for manual interventions, thus avoiding accidents and improving operator safety

From a sustainability perspective, digitalization means heat treaters can monitor, analyze, predict, test, and adapt energy efficiencies in their operations. This magazine features a conversation with experts in heat treat with an eye for energy, and they’ve commented on this specific topic. “With higher computational capacity on the controllers on a per furnace basis,” John Clarke, technical director at Helios Electric Corporation notes, “we have the ability to start executing real-time analysis on the furnace and potentially implement a thermodynamic model of the furnace and how it’s operating.” Several representatives from Watlow illustrate this point: “Poor thermal uniformity can lead to scrap and rework of material, which both result in excess energy consumption.” Read the eight-page conversation with six international expert contributors on page 19.

But there are drawbacks to adopting this new technology, and in the midst of all of this “good,” I do wonder how difficult this transition has been — or can be — for some in-house heat treaters. Challenges when considering this technology include:

  1. Initial Investment. The initial investment in new technology is always present, and so is the question of who will “dish out the dough.” Will the furnace supplier try to absorb upgrading expenses? Or does it fall to the end-user buying the furnace or upgrade?
  2. Operational Complexity. However easy to operate a technology is now, it was not always the case. I once thought typing at a computer was the most difficult thing in the world. Now, I’m so familiar with a keyboard that I can look over at my husband texting on his phone and know (to a degree) the message he is typing, just by watching his thumb position. What skills does your team have to learn a new system? How much time will it take to train 50%–75% of them? How long until you feel confident in the process?
  3. Overdependence on Technology. We depend on digital technologies for many things (thank you, alarm clocks!), but is the level of dependence compromising something valuable? And to what degree? When it comes to cybersecurity threats, for example, what type of dependence on technology exposes you to more risk versus fortifying your internal systems?

The promises and challenges of digitalization will continue to face-off in offices and plant floors. While the boundary line of digital acceptance may shift, this new frontier towards creating “a holistic virtual representation of heat treat operations” means new technologies and processes that will be tested and adopted by heat treat pioneers, possibly you.

As with any frontier, there are known and unknown dangers. Let us know how your company is considering digitalization and what opportunities are golden nuggets or simply fool’s gold: editor@heattreattoday.com.

Special thanks to Mike Löpke (head of software & digitalization at Nitrex Metal) and Jeffrey Halonen (CEO of Steelhead Technologies) for their insights.

Bethany Leone, Managing Editor, Heat Treat Today

Contact Bethany Leone at bethany@heattreattoday.com.

Find Heat Treating Products And Services When You Search On Heat Treat Buyers Guide.Com

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Is It Time To Rethink the “Quality” Movement?

/ HEAT TREAT NEWS, HEAT TREAT NEWS INDUSTRIES, PUBLISHER'S PAGE

“It’s really difficult to speak against ‘quality.’ Who doesn’t want quality?” Read on to discover Doug’s thoughts on this topic.

Heat Treat Today publishes eight print magazines a year and included in each is a letter from the publisher, Doug Glenn. This letter first appeared in the March 2024 Aerospace Heat Treat print edition.

With door plugs flying out of airplanes at scary-high altitudes, it seems an appropriate time to revisit where we are in quality initiatives in the North American heat treat industry from an equally high, 30,000-foot perspective.

It’s really difficult to speak against “quality.” Who doesn’t want quality? Those who even bring it up are bound to be looked at with suspicion. Let the suspicion begin, because I would like to bring it up.

One Standard To Rule Them All

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Since my early days in the heat treat industry (late 1980s), there have been discussions about “quality” standards and certifications. I first remember QS-9000, a standard imposed on automotive industry suppliers by the Big 3: General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler. The understanding was if you (a supplier to the Big 3) work and achieve QS-9000, then you won’t need to worry about complying with any other quality certifications, especially from one of the Big 3; it was one standard to rule them all, to borrow language from Lord of the Rings.

Before QS-9000, each of the Big 3 could demand that you comply with their specific quality standards, and each of them could (and would) audit your processes, costing suppliers significant time and money. Saving these costs by complying with JUST ONE standard that would make the Big 3 happy was the driving force behind QS-9000.

But QS-9000 ceased to exist on December 14, 2006, and was replaced by one or two other standards systems (depending on how you look at it). So much for one standard.

During the 1980s and 1990s, the quality industry saw enormous growth. “Quality Assurance” (QA) departments burgeoned, “Quality Managers” became more prevalent, and standards organizations, like SAE and ISO, flourished. Quality had become an industry of its own. In fact, my previous employer, BNP Media, publishes Quality Magazine just to serve the growing quality industry. Quality is now a living, breathing organism that, like all living things, is interested in self-propagation and survival.

“Quality” or Consistency?

One of the first thoughts I remember having about the corporate quality initiative I was involved with was the distinct lack of a definition of what “quality” really meant. For many of the standards, they did not really care what you did (whether or not you did quality work), they just wanted you to prove you had documented your work, that your people knew said documentation existed, and they were following the processes you had described in documentation.

That doesn’t sound so much like true quality so much as it sounds like a consistency check for documentation. Certainly, documenting and complying with documentation is a good thing. To that extent, the quality movement has certainly helped many companies.

“. . . current “quality” standards . . . act [more] as an anchor on a fully throttled ship . . . .”

Doug Glenn, Publisher, Heat Treat Today

“Quality” or Conformity?

As the current “quality” movement stands, it seems to be more of a hindrance to quality than a help. Today, most of the current quality standards that exist, as much as they may help in some instances, act as an anchor on a fully throttled ship — slowing progress and innovation.

Regularly, we hear about new technologies that are very innovative. These new technologies, if they could be adopted, would undoubtedly increase true quality and lower costs. They are, however, not being commercialized at a significant rate because suppliers have to conform to quality standards, and it would take heaven and earth to change those standards. In this sense, the quality movement is inhibiting quality instead of supporting it.

Love-Hate Relationship

Even many in the quality industry are aware of this hinderance. Over the past several months, I’ve spoken with quite a few quality people who think their industry is bloated and, in many cases, counterproductive. But it is a huge part of their livelihood. When I ask them if they think the industry would be better off without a quality movement, nearly all of them have a hard time letting go . Most think it would be a bad thing if quality standards and audits went away.

Perhaps in a future column, I can give you one scenario of how we could pivot away from the current “quality” system to a more market-oriented quality system which would do a better job promoting both quality and innovation .

Doug Glenn, Publisher, Heat Treat Today

For more information contact Doug at doug@heattreattoday.com.

Find Heat Treating Products And Services When You Search On Heat Treat Buyers Guide.Com

Is It Time To Rethink the “Quality” Movement? Read More »

Merry Christmas from Heat Treat Today

/ FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT NEWS INDUSTRIES, OP-ED

We will be celebrating the holidays with family, so look for your next Heat Treat Daily on January 3rd.

2021 has been a transformative year! Because we love people and 2021 saw the return of in-person, face-to-face events, seeing you in and around the trade show halls has been our #1 memory from 2021! What a joy to see and talk with so many of you.

In 2022, we’re looking forward to keeping you well informed by sharing relevant and compelling technical content, industry news, and innovative trends in the North American heat treat industry.

We are thankful for you and here’s our year-end prayer for you and yours, “May you experience the peace and hope that only Christ can give. Wishing you the joy of the Lord as we celebrate the birth of the Savior.”

- The Heat Treat Today Team

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IHEA Monthly Economic Report: The Good. The Bad. The Ugly.

/ FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

"That sense of euphoria over the rapid growth sustained since the start of the year has started to fade and not for the reason that was expected," states July's Industrial Heating Equipment Association’s (IHEA) Executive Economic Summary. Remember at the beginning of the year, there was an expectation that there would be growth, but it would hopefully be a bit slow. That was preferred because then "producers would be able to keep pace with demand and that would minimize the inflation threat."

As indicated, when looking at the data for capacity utilization, there has been a great deal more investment in equipment, machinery, and technology in the last few months. The swift recovery of the economy convinced many companies they needed to move quickly to meet that surge in demand.

The report explains that "What we actually got was an economy on fire with a 6.5% growth rate in Q2. Suddenly the inflation threat was real as producers were quickly overwhelmed." But, as everyone was preparing for growth, Covid reared its ugly head again. "Now we see potential decline in the last half of the year as those protocols and restrictions reappear. "Will there be another lockdown? Will consumers retreat again and send the service sector back into recession?" Those are vital questions that are begging for answers.

Businesses had two possible responses to the early surge, both based on consumer action: add capacity to meet the demand and trust the surge will continue or hold tight and possibly lose business to competitors. The summary reports, "Until roughly a month ago, it would have been a good bet to assume that demand would continue to grow – all the signs and indicators were pointing that way. Today the story is far less clear. The resumption of pandemic protocols has been an immense disappointment and has created significant tension."

The data from the PMI has been getting progressively better and these are very high numbers in general. (The PMI index indicates expansion when the numbers are above 50 and contraction when they are below 50. The last time the index was even close to that decline was a year ago when the reading was 50.9 and it has been climbing ever since.) The unique aspect of the PMI is that it is current and honest – it is literally a monthly assessment of what industries are buying.

So, where does that leave the U.S. economy for the remainder of the year? There are three scenarios: the good, the bad, and the ugly. The good is one in which "people basically adjust to the protocols with some patience. . . . If that is the case, the expectation is that growth rates will be relatively unaffected." The bad suggests that "consumers do not adapt well and begin to shift their behaviors back to what they were last year – shunning events, restaurants, travel, and other public activity." And the ugly scenario could result if "the outbreak gets bad enough that lockdowns are reimposed."

The report concludes that "consumer growth and tension are not good companions." Time will reveal the consumer's chosen scenario.

Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA
Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA

Check out the full report to see specific index growth and analysis, which is available to IHEA member companies. For membership information, and a full copy of  the 12-page report, contact Anne Goyer, executive director of the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA). Email Anne by clicking here.

 

IHEA Monthly Economic Report: The Good. The Bad. The Ugly. Read More »

45′ Long Seamless Nickel Alloy Tubes Vacuum Heat Treated Successfully

/ FEATURED NEWS, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT, VACUUM FURNACES NEWS

Michael Johnson
Sales Manager
Solar Atmospheres of Western PA

HTD Size-PR LogoSolar Atmospheres of Western PA successfully vacuum heat treated what is reported to be the largest and longest load of nickel alloy tubing ever in a commercial vacuum furnace. The mission was to preserve the crucial elements of brightness and cleanliness of the 45-foot-long seamless tubing while meeting extremely stringent mechanical properties.

“We spent countless hours reviewing critical systems such as triplicate pumping systems and redundant hot zone controls for any unforeseeable event that might arise during the 100+ hour run,” stated Michael Johnson, sales director at Solar Atmospheres of Western PA. “We are also fortunate that we can rely on our furnace manufacturing division, Solar Manufacturing, for guidance should any issue arise. This successful run will ignite a production campaign for the next 5 years, once again boosting confidence that this 48 foot vacuum furnace will surpass our customers’ expectations.”

Editor’s Note:

We suspected that this is a significant heat treating accomplishment, so we asked industry consultant and expert Dan Herring for perspective.  Here are the questions and his responses. The following is provided by Heat Treat Today and not Solar Atmospheres of Western PA.

HTT: In what industries might these tubes be used?

DH:  Typical examples would include steam generator tubing in nuclear power plants, high temperature aircraft systems, the oil and gas extraction industry, and anywhere applications call for corrosion/pressure/temperature resistant tubes/pipe.

HTT: Is there anything special about processing nickel alloy tubing?

DH: Yes. In order to maximize corrosion resistance, one must keep the surfaces of the tubes as oxide-free as possible. Hence, the use of vacuum. Also, the long lengths of the pipe means fewer welded joints (fewer joints means a stronger pipe, and likely more resistant to corrosion).

HTT: Is this release noteworthy?

DH: It is absolutely noteworthy. This demonstrates size capability available in only a handful (if that many) heat treat shops IN THE WORLD.

45′ Long Seamless Nickel Alloy Tubes Vacuum Heat Treated Successfully Read More »

IHEA Monthly Economic Report: Are You Experiencing Economic Whiplash?

/ FEATURED NEWS, HEAT TREAT ECONOMIC NEWS

"If you have the feeling that you are experiencing economic whiplash, you are certainly not alone. The last two years have quite literally dumped every conceivable economic issue on business and in an intense and often unpredictable manner," begins June's  Industrial Heating Equipment Association’s (IHEA) Executive Economic Summary. Because conditions are changing so quickly, it's been difficult for businesses to develop strategic plans.

The report explains, "In 2020 the world experienced a massively deep recession whose origins were truly unique – a recession by edict. That has been followed by a surging recovery that shattered the ability of the system to keep pace. This has led to severe shortages and very high inflation in a number of sectors." So, here we are in mid-2021 and the result is a two-tiered economy in which you have businesses recording high demand for their services  and other businesses that have yet to experience needed  recovery. Some consumers have money to burn, while others are declaring bankruptcy. And, inflation seems to the top issue for the business community. (Read the informative and well-written analysis about inflation in the full report. See below.)

Let's take a look at a few of the indices and how they are trending:

"The auto sector has been hammered harder than most by the supply chain disruptions and that has affected performance considerably. The sales numbers are down as low as they have been in months, but as near as anyone can determine this has nothing to do with consumer demand and everything to do with supply. The average price of a car is as high as it has ever been and is now over $40,000," states the summary. High prices, however, aren't deterring people from wanting to buy vehicles--the demand for cars is real. It's that the automotive industry,  ". . . can’t get them as the parts shortages just keep dragging on and on. It is now estimated that computer chips will not be available in the quantities needed until well into 2022." And here's an interesting fact, "The average age of a vehicle in the U.S. is now over 12 years and that is a record."

New home starts are up. The report says, "The housing sector is still far stronger than many had expected it to be given the high prices for homes. The demand is there as long as the mortgage rates are not rising and thus far, they have not. In fact, they have even fallen again. The higher end homes are in more demand than the lower end as these less expensive homes are the target for those who have been affected by the recession."

The housing sector is still far stronger than many had expected it to be given the high prices for homes. The demand is there as long as the mortgage rates are not rising and thus far, they have not. In fact, they have even fallen again.

Steel consumption has also risen. "The levels of steel consumption continue to climb – somewhat erratically but they are climbing. This is a bit odd given what has been taking place in the sectors that consume the majority of steel in the U.S.--those sectors like automotive, commercial  construction and the uncertain future of office buildings." Why the demand for steel? The report continues, "The biggest motivator has been some version of stockpiling as many are expecting even higher prices in the future and are trying to get ahead of that hike. Then there has been demand for appliances and other goods as housing continues to see growth. Beyond the auto sector, there has been better demand in other transportation sectors as well as in construction and heavy machinery.

And finally,  factory orders are up. "The level of factory orders has started to advance and the timing for these gains is about what was expected. This is the time of year that retailers start to gear up for the holiday season and by all accounts they are expecting a better than average season. The consumer is still in a spending mood and still has cash available to spend."

One of the factors that has started to boost factory orders in the U.S. has been the shift to some reshoring activity as the global supply chain becomes more unreliable.

We're all on this wild economic roller coaster ride together, so hold on tight! It's quite the adventure!

Check out the full report to see specific index growth and analysis which is available to IHEA member companies. For membership information, and a full copy of  the 12-page report, contact Anne Goyer, executive director of the Industrial Heating Equipment Association (IHEA). Email Anne by clicking here.

Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA
Anne Goyer, Executive Director of IHEA

 

 

 

IHEA Monthly Economic Report: Are You Experiencing Economic Whiplash? Read More »

Controls and Simulation: Heat Treat on Demand

/ CARBURIZING TECHNICAL CONTENT, CONTROLS TECHNICAL CONTENT, FEATURED NEWS, MANUFACTURING HEAT TREAT

Best of the WebSource: Super Systems

Carburizing. It must happen sometimes, and if your heat treat division truly understands the impact of the atmosphere, more power to them. In this article by Jim Oakes of Super Systems, you will learn how seeing simulated data with real-time data can help you predict the amount of carbon available to the steel surface.

An excerpt:

“It is important to understand the model and specific variations caused by temperature, furnaces, agitation, fixturing, and part composition. Variations include alloying effects on the diffusion modeling based on certain alloy components, such as chromium and nickel.”

Read more at: “Understanding Atmosphere in Carburizing Applications Using Simulation and Real-Time Carbon Diffusion”

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